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Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. Message Board

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  • iamdeebo831 iamdeebo831 Nov 28, 2012 2:38 PM Flag


    Well they knew the error rate would be higher on the longer reads, but it seems like they already have figured out how to fix that.

    It's hard to tell how much of a threat Oxford Nanospore really is. They claim to have this incredible technology, but I don't know that anyone has seen it work. They were hyping it and were suppose to show it at American Society of Human Genetics annual meeting 3 weeks ago. Yet theres been zero news about it.

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    • I'm more skeptical of Oxford Nanopore than bullish - as an investor, you never want to buy into hype.

      Some possible reasons for lack of news:

      Parties who have already obtained demo minIONs are constrained by non-disclosure agreements
      - I think this is primarily because PACB made the mistake of releasing data early, when it still had kinks and it was overwhelmingly anti-climatic. They want to avoid that.

      Illumina owns 15% of Oxford Nanopore, so I guess that they have a say in what gets shouted from rooftops

      That still doesn't detract from the fact that Pacbios are overpriced and only occupy an incredibly small niche that's in danger of being disrupted within the next two quarters.


      I tried hard to think up a bullish case for the stock, since PACB is steamrolling other biotech sequencers in terms of current stock performance and I think this may be the case.

      Even though the company bleeds cash from quarter to quarter, share prices are still trading under cash per share.

      119 cash and cash equivalents from most recent quarter
      - 9 million is probably used up at this point

      110 * .9 ( adjustment for rosy Non-GAAP accounting) =

      99 / 55.7 shares outstanding = $ 1.8 cash per share

      And you can tweak that upwards and downwards due to addition variables such as exercised stock options or liquidating value of PPE, but it will slant upwards.

      In the event of liquidation, that would be approximately how much a share of PACB is worth
      at this moment in time, this value will get lower as the months go by since I do not expect PACB to ever break even much less reach a profit.

      I trust the CEO to be prudent in investing his own capital, by liquidation, but if he want's to steer PACB down it's current path it would be an entirely different story.

      My question for any knowledgeable investor out there is this:

      Is an insider who participates in massive purchases of his company stock, when it is trading below cash per share, allowed to subsequently take measures to begin voluntary liquidation?

      Or is this in bad faith and punishable by securities law?

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