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Cisco Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now May 12, 2012 3:19 PM Flag

    CSCO is not the same old CSCO

    I read a lot of analyses based on CSCO past performance. I read some retail banking on negativity that some analysts injected based on their high expectation for guidance in current envrionment. Putting all the nonsense noises aside, CSCO has done and it is doing much better than most S&P tech stocks and its entire sector.

    Let’s get to numbers: I compare CSCO to IBM, MSFT, INTC, TXN, HPQ and JNPR.
    You will see that CSCO is ahead of all with more growth and it guided better than all above. However, unrealistic expectation was built in this environment that doomed CSCO to these unbelievable prices.

    Although CSCO missed the guidance but still higher year over year with reasonable and good growth that most big companies couldn’t match.
    CSCO rev for June is +3.5% ($11.6 B vs $11.2 B) higher year over year.
    CSCO income for June is +15% ($.46 vs $.40) higher year over year.

    Let see who can match CSCO growth and guidance year over for June quarter.

    IBM: missed June guidance and it guided
    Rev is -.7% down ($26.48B vs $26.67), income is +11% up ($3.44 vs $3.09). Simply, CSCO guidance is better than IBM.

    INTC:
    Rev is +4.5% up ($13.62 B vs $13.03 B), income is -2% down ($.53 vs $.54). Rev is higher but income lower which means INTC producing more at lower prices or the margin is going down. I prefer CSCO and IBM income.

    TXN:
    Rev is -3% down ($3.35B vs 3.46B), income is -26% down ($.42 vs $.57). TXN is trading twice as much as CSCO PPS but with much less cash, income and growth. I can’t figure out this scenario.

    JNPR: a direct CSCO competitor
    Rev is -6.3% down ($1.05 B vs $1.12B), income is -45% down ($.17 vs $.31). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of JNPR. However, JNPR is trading 10% higher than CSCO now with less than half of CSCO income. This is also a mystery until investors come to their senses.

    HPQ: a direct CSCO competitor
    Rev is -5.4% down ($31.63B vs $29.93B), income is -27% down ($.1.24 vs $.91). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of HPQ. HPQ is next RIMM with losing revenue and income to CSCO and other companies. HPQ has a big debt and little money and its income is not stable at these levels.

    MSFT:
    Rev is +7.8% up ($18.72B vs $17.37B), income is -4% down ($.66 vs $.69). MSFT is doing the same as INTC. Revenue is going up but income is not exciting and not much growth in the income.


    CSCO at current price pays 2% dividend and as CSCO CEO mentioned in the recent CC, the dividend will be raised. At PE under 9, with $6/share of net cash and book value above $9/share I will be crazy if I don’t put the farm on CSCO.
    This is not the same company in 2011. At least look at income and growth compare to a year ago when it went below $16. We have seen INTC and MSFT went through the same scenario and turned around. CSCO will do the same. It will go to $25 first and then much higher prices than $25 in coming years.

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    • This was posted by cash_is_king_now

      CSCO is not the same old I read a lot of analyses based on CSCO past performance. I read some retails banking on negativity that some analysts have injected based on their high expectation for guidance in current envrionment. Putting all these nonsense noises aside, CSCO has done fairly well and it is doing much better than most S&P tech stocks and of course its sector.

      Let’s get to numbers:
      I compare CSCO to IBM, MSFT, INTC, TXN, HPQ and JNPR.
      You will see that CSCO is ahead of all with more growth and it also guided better than all above year over year. However, unrealistic expectation was built in this environment that doomed CSCO to these unbelievable prices which not last.

      Although CSCO missed the guidance but still is higher year over year with reasonable and good growth that most big companies couldn’t match.

      CSCO rev for June is +3.5% ($11.6 B vs $11.2 B) higher year over year.
      CSCO income for June is +15% ($.46 vs $.40) higher year over year.

      Lets see which company in CSCO size(or close to CSCO, a multi $B company) can match CSCO performancr, growth and guidance year over for June quarter.

      IBM:
      It missed June guidance and it guided
      Rev is -.7% down ($26.48B vs $26.67), income is +11% up ($3.44 vs $3.09). Simply, CSCO guidance is better than IBM.

      INTC:
      Rev is +4.5% up ($13.62 B vs $13.03 B), income is -2% down ($.53 vs $.54). Rev is higher but income lower which means INTC producing more at lower prices or the margin is going down. I prefer CSCO and IBM income.

      TXN:
      Rev is -3% down ($3.35B vs 3.46B), income is -26% down ($.42 vs $.57). TXN is trading twice as much as CSCO PPS but with much less cash, income and growth. I can’t figure out this scenario.

      JNPR: a direct CSCO competitor
      Rev is -6.3% down ($1.05 B vs $1.12B), income is -45% down ($.17 vs $.31). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of JNPR. However, JNPR is trading 10% higher than CSCO now with less than half of CSCO income. This is also a mystery until investors come to their senses.

      HPQ: a direct CSCO competitor
      Rev is -5.4% down ($31.63B vs $29.93B), income is -27% down ($.1.24 vs $.91). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of HPQ. HPQ is next RIMM with losing revenue and income to CSCO and other companies. HPQ has a big debt and little money and its income is not stable at these levels.

      MSFT:
      Rev is +7.8% up ($18.72B vs $17.37B), income is -4% down ($.66 vs $.69). MSFT is doing the same as INTC. Revenue is going up but income is not exciting and not much growth in the income.


      CSCO at current price($16.50) pays 2% dividend and as CSCO CEO mentioned in the recent CC, the dividend will be raised.
      At PE under 9, with $6/share of net cash and book value above $9/share I will be crazy if I don’t put the farm on this baby.

      This is not the same company that was in 2011. At least look at its income/growth and compare it to a year ago when it went below $16.
      We have seen INTC and MSFT at the same situation and the same scenario but turned around.CSCO will do the same.
      CSCO is not HPQ with many bad decision and wrong purchases and load of debt. CSCO is not RIMM to compete against AAPL.
      CSCO is a leader in its sector and it is taking market shares from its peers. It will go to $25 sooner or later and then $30 and $35 in coming years.

      Sentiment : Strong Buy

    • Sorry, I was comatose this past week. Did the new CSCO do a stock split, like the old CSCO?

    • Correct. It is not the 1990's bellweather anymore. Strategic mistakes and poor leadership are to blame. Even EMC is getting into their game.

      Chambers needs to go asap!

    • Let see who can match CSCO's growth and guidance year over year for June quarter.

      IBM: missed June guidance and it guided
      Rev is -.7% down ($26.48B vs $26.67), income is +11% up ($3.44 vs $3.09). Simply, CSCO guidance is better than IBM.

      INTC:
      Rev is +4.5% up ($13.62 B vs $13.03 B), income is -2% down ($.53 vs $.54). Rev is higher but income lower which means INTC producing more at lower prices or the margin is going down. I prefer CSCO and IBM income.

      TXN:
      Rev is -3% down ($3.35B vs 3.46B), income is -26% down ($.42 vs $.57). TXN is trading twice as much as CSCO PPS but with much less cash, income and growth. I can’t figure out this scenario.

      JNPR: a direct CSCO competitor
      Rev is -6.3% down ($1.05 B vs $1.12B), income is -45% down ($.17 vs $.31). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of JNPR. However, JNPR is trading 10% higher than CSCO now with less than half of CSCO income. This is also a mystery until investors come to their senses.

      HPQ: a direct CSCO competitor
      Rev is -5.4% down ($31.63B vs $29.93B), income is -27% down ($.1.24 vs $.91). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of HPQ. HPQ is next RIMM with losing revenue and income to CSCO and other companies. HPQ has a big debt and little money and its income is not stable at these levels.

      MSFT:
      Rev is +7.8% up ($18.72B vs $17.37B), income is -4% down ($.66 vs $.69). MSFT is doing the same as INTC. Revenue is going up but income is not exciting and not much growth in the income.


      CSCO at current price pays 2% dividend and as CSCO CEO mentioned in the recent CC, the dividend will be raised. At PE under 9, with $6/share of net cash and book value above $9/share I will be crazy if I don’t put the farm on CSCO.
      This is not the same company in 2011. At least look at income and growth compare to a year ago when it went below $16. We have seen INTC and MSFT went through the same scenario and turned around. CSCO will do the same. It will go to $25 first and then much higher prices than $25 in coming years.

    • Let see who can match CSCO growth and guidance year over for June quarter.

      IBM: missed June guidance and it guided
      Rev is -.7% down ($26.48B vs $26.67), income is +11% up ($3.44 vs $3.09). Simply, CSCO guidance is better than IBM.

      INTC:
      Rev is +4.5% up ($13.62 B vs $13.03 B), income is -2% down ($.53 vs $.54). Rev is higher but income lower which means INTC producing more at lower prices or the margin is going down. I prefer CSCO and IBM income.

      TXN:
      Rev is -3% down ($3.35B vs 3.46B), income is -26% down ($.42 vs $.57). TXN is trading twice as much as CSCO PPS but with much less cash, income and growth. I can’t figure out this scenario.

      JNPR: a direct CSCO competitor
      Rev is -6.3% down ($1.05 B vs $1.12B), income is -45% down ($.17 vs $.31). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of JNPR. However, JNPR is trading 10% higher than CSCO now with less than half of CSCO income. This is also a mystery until investors come to their senses.

      HPQ: a direct CSCO competitor
      Rev is -5.4% down ($31.63B vs $29.93B), income is -27% down ($.1.24 vs $.91). CSCO is taking a lot of market shares out of HPQ. HPQ is next RIMM with losing revenue and income to CSCO and other companies. HPQ has a big debt and little money and its income is not stable at these levels.

      MSFT:
      Rev is +7.8% up ($18.72B vs $17.37B), income is -4% down ($.66 vs $.69). MSFT is doing the same as INTC. Revenue is going up but income is not exciting and not much growth in the income.


      CSCO at current price pays 2% dividend and as CSCO CEO mentioned in the recent CC, the dividend will be raised. At PE under 9, with $6/share of net cash and book value above $9/share I will be crazy if I don’t put the farm on CSCO.
      This is not the same company in 2011. At least look at income and growth compare to a year ago when it went below $16. We have seen INTC and MSFT went through the same scenario and turned around. CSCO will do the same. It will go to $25 first and then much higher prices than $25 in coming years.

      • 1 Reply to cash_is_king_now
      • Good comparison on How CSCO growth, income and EPS have fared Year over year compared to IBM, MSFT, TXN etc

        I think CSCO should sell Puts, buy long dated calls and make some money first for shareholders. They can also buyback shares at 17, 18 than 20s. No point in paying top dollars for the benefit of select insiders.

        I have left a message for investor desk and will check when the dividend will be increased. Last time they did spend over 30 mins with me , took my suggestions and (I think) implemented some of them.

        One of these days Mon-wed, next week it will trade in 17.4+ and the fun starts for short-squeeze....

        - sagestock_guru

    • $12B of stock value is gone in a few days.

      Huwei will eat its lunch.

 
CSCO
29.33+0.07(+0.24%)Mar 4 4:00 PMEST

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