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Cisco Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • CORONADO_SEAL CORONADO_SEAL Nov 6, 1999 2:49 PM Flag


    I find it very interesting that the CSCO Nov. 60
    puts made the most active list at the Chicago Board of
    Options Exchange on Friday, with more than 5000
    contracts. Also note that the MSFT Nov. 90 puts made the
    list also.

    Look for a buying oppertunity later
    next week when CSCO misses their

    Please confirm the PUT activity on CSCO at

    Just click on the most active list and
    confirm for yourself.

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    • the only things that makes me not go short on
      Nove 22 is that a market at its highs near the end of
      the uear ensures the capital gains component of the
      budget surplus.

      We would have had a very
      different scenario last year if greenie hadn't boosted
      stocks to their all time high after the Vodka

      just a little cynicism

    • I think things are cooling off a lot and it's
      always that one hike too much that puts us in a seven
      year recession. I think greenspan learned from the
      Japan experience few years ago. Their economy was
      running at a fantastic rate. No inflation and one day
      this dude just increased rates because growth was "too
      fast". Since then noone can raise japan from its
      doldrums. I think that's something in every central
      banker's books. A chinese economist speaking to our
      clients ther other day stated that the American economy
      is a bubble that won't burst because foreigners
      can't attack the dollar like they can the Russian

      I told him that a "bubble economy that doesn't
      burst" in America is called a paradigm

      Greenspan has the choice now, either to transend the old
      system and let things go as long as there is no sign of
      inflation, or to freak out because the party is too good and
      everyone is too high and run back to his mama's house and
      seek comfort in the old theories. His speeches
      indicate that he has an enormous intelligence and the
      capacity for the paradigm shift. Let's

      Inaction won't necesarily cost as much as action at this
      point. I see your point though. let's see.

      What I
      don't know is how the bond market would react to a lack
      of a rate hike.


    • perhaps on the rate hike - what with Y2K,
      election year, etc etc there's a sense of "it's now or
      never" IMHO. The strong buys issued by Merrill and
      Salomon remind me a lot of the action prior to Lucent's
      earnings release. As for Nov 22, you must be reading my
      mind - definitely a time to start taking money off the
      table for margined players like myself...

    • You can not infer the movement of a stock because
      of option volume. This is the crux of your argument.
      Lets say you are right, this argument favors the
      bulls. You have taken the 60 puts as an example. You
      need to add up all the intervals to that strike price.
      Therefore, you have to include the 65 and 70 puts. The bull
      argument would have to be the 70, 75, and 80 calls. I get
      volume of 17434 put activity BUT 17535 CALL ACTIVITY.
      These numbers mean nothing by themselves, but if you
      insist to look at volume, your argument has no basis.
      You need to start understand what TA is and how
      fundamentals relate to a company. Oh yeah, 75 is the breakout
      print and I believe earnings are on Tues with the conf.
      call on Wed. Good luck :)

      • 1 Reply to make_money10
      • Thankyou for replying to my message. However, it
        was not intended to me an argument. I simply found
        the irregular CSCO put activity

        Since I have been following the options for CSCO, this
        is the first time it has shown up on the most active
        put series for three different strike prices in one
        day. Those being the Nov. 60's, the Dec. 65's and the
        Jan. 65's.

        Obviously this has nothing to do
        with TA, which I have no knowledge of. As far as I'm
        concerned, TA refers to the anatomy of a women.

        only point is that the put volume was much higher than
        normal. Therefore one would have to assume that a lot of
        folks laid down their bets on Friday thinking that CSCO
        will miss on Tuesday.

        CSCO is a blue chip and
        one for the bank, but just maybe a buying oppertunity
        well come next week.

        We will all find out

    • anything. NOv 75 and 80 calls were also on the
      most active lists. Before the earnings when CSCO
      trades and 77 I will consider buying Nov 70 puts as a
      hedge, probably for half a buck each as a doomsday hedge
      for my 200 calls.

      • 1 Reply to bardbeaubanker
      • the earnings announcement? The IV's are too high
        the day before earnings and even if the stock moved
        your way, you still may not make any money b/c the air
        will get sucked out of tose options unless the stock
        really ran hard. If you really wanted to hedge, then I
        would sell the calls that were one or 2 strikes above
        the ones that I am long (you won't make as much money
        if the stock runs, but selling premium the day
        before earnings is often times the best strategy to

    • It seems you missed to say that the Nov 80 calls
      also traded over 5000 contracts. So what do you make
      of this half the people see 60 and the other half
      see 80 in Nov? BS the Nove 75 calls also traded 5000

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