I find it very interesting that the CSCO Nov. 60
puts made the most active list at the Chicago Board of
Options Exchange on Friday, with more than 5000
contracts. Also note that the MSFT Nov. 90 puts made the
Look for a buying oppertunity later
next week when CSCO misses their
Please confirm the PUT activity on CSCO at
Just click on the most active list and
confirm for yourself.
the only things that makes me not go short on
Nove 22 is that a market at its highs near the end of
the uear ensures the capital gains component of the
We would have had a very
different scenario last year if greenie hadn't boosted
stocks to their all time high after the Vodka
just a little cynicism
I think things are cooling off a lot and it's
always that one hike too much that puts us in a seven
year recession. I think greenspan learned from the
Japan experience few years ago. Their economy was
running at a fantastic rate. No inflation and one day
this dude just increased rates because growth was "too
fast". Since then noone can raise japan from its
doldrums. I think that's something in every central
banker's books. A chinese economist speaking to our
clients ther other day stated that the American economy
is a bubble that won't burst because foreigners
can't attack the dollar like they can the Russian
I told him that a "bubble economy that doesn't
burst" in America is called a paradigm
Greenspan has the choice now, either to transend the old
system and let things go as long as there is no sign of
inflation, or to freak out because the party is too good and
everyone is too high and run back to his mama's house and
seek comfort in the old theories. His speeches
indicate that he has an enormous intelligence and the
capacity for the paradigm shift. Let's
Inaction won't necesarily cost as much as action at this
point. I see your point though. let's see.
don't know is how the bond market would react to a lack
of a rate hike.
perhaps on the rate hike - what with Y2K,
election year, etc etc there's a sense of "it's now or
never" IMHO. The strong buys issued by Merrill and
Salomon remind me a lot of the action prior to Lucent's
earnings release. As for Nov 22, you must be reading my
mind - definitely a time to start taking money off the
table for margined players like myself...
You can not infer the movement of a stock because
of option volume. This is the crux of your argument.
Lets say you are right, this argument favors the
bulls. You have taken the 60 puts as an example. You
need to add up all the intervals to that strike price.
Therefore, you have to include the 65 and 70 puts. The bull
argument would have to be the 70, 75, and 80 calls. I get
volume of 17434 put activity BUT 17535 CALL ACTIVITY.
These numbers mean nothing by themselves, but if you
insist to look at volume, your argument has no basis.
You need to start understand what TA is and how
fundamentals relate to a company. Oh yeah, 75 is the breakout
print and I believe earnings are on Tues with the conf.
call on Wed. Good luck :)
Thankyou for replying to my message. However, it
was not intended to me an argument. I simply found
the irregular CSCO put activity
Since I have been following the options for CSCO, this
is the first time it has shown up on the most active
put series for three different strike prices in one
day. Those being the Nov. 60's, the Dec. 65's and the
Obviously this has nothing to do
with TA, which I have no knowledge of. As far as I'm
concerned, TA refers to the anatomy of a women.
only point is that the put volume was much higher than
normal. Therefore one would have to assume that a lot of
folks laid down their bets on Friday thinking that CSCO
will miss on Tuesday.
CSCO is a blue chip and
one for the bank, but just maybe a buying oppertunity
well come next week.
We will all find out
anything. NOv 75 and 80 calls were also on the
most active lists. Before the earnings when CSCO
trades and 77 I will consider buying Nov 70 puts as a
hedge, probably for half a buck each as a doomsday hedge
for my 200 calls.
the earnings announcement? The IV's are too high
the day before earnings and even if the stock moved
your way, you still may not make any money b/c the air
will get sucked out of tose options unless the stock
really ran hard. If you really wanted to hedge, then I
would sell the calls that were one or 2 strikes above
the ones that I am long (you won't make as much money
if the stock runs, but selling premium the day
before earnings is often times the best strategy to
It seems you missed to say that the Nov 80 calls
also traded over 5000 contracts. So what do you make
of this half the people see 60 and the other half
see 80 in Nov? BS the Nove 75 calls also traded 5000