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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

  • rogluther rogluther Mar 7, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Bag Holders

    Hate to say I told ya so.

    SCCO'S recent rise in share price was not based on ANY KNOWN important facts. Somebody set ya up.

    So today ya wake-up and ask why the drop? Ya, ya it's the price of copper dropping 4% ..... that's what caused it. Ya think? If ya think it's the copper price ask yourself "why did copper drop 4% today?" Is somebody creating another set-up?

    Since 2/3/14, SCCO is now up about 5.6% (div included) ..... is that a more reasonable rise in share price? Maybe.

    Whenever somebody wants to make short term money some other bag holder tends to get burned. Invest on facts and be very careful when a big pop in share price is NOT JUSTIFIED by known facts.

    Pardon me I've got to take off my tin hat and run outside ..... I think I just heard a black drone flying above my home and I've got to get a picture and don't want my neighbors to think I'm nuts for wearing the hat.


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    • Anyone who starts their diatribe with "hate to say",
      usually doesn't. :)

    • First of all, I kindly suggest you to wait a bit before waving your tin hat. It is very easy to get crazy trying to find logics in daily market moves. Wait for something longer than one day and, anyway, it is unfair and wrong to say that explanations (aka facts) do not exist.

      For example, many articles today explain drop in copper price by “concerns about Chinese growth”. More specifically, one Chinese company declared bankruptcy today. It is not a big company and it is far from actual consumers of copper (it is in fact one of multiple defunct solar-panel developers), but it is the first case of Chapter 11 in China and press pays attention and journalists make smart faces and produce wise conclusions. Tomorrow they will talk about something else, e.g. coal or iron, also e.g. concerning about “Chinese growth”.

      In meantime, LME storage numbers still point to strong copper demand. My bet is on this and imho it is based on some facts. After all, world economies continue reporting stronger numbers, i.e. better than last year. Please note that raw copper gets bought by China, but eventually it is consumed by U.S. folks. Let see how it’s going; U.S. loves to consume.

      This is stock market; it is not quite amenable to precise analysis. It can be said that market is rational in long-term, while any look at any stock at any particular day could convince that it is all irrational. However, stock investors better stick to rational analysis, just because admittance and acceptance of complete irrationality could make very stupid to invest in stocks at all.

      Needless to say that one should keep portfolio diversified and never over-estimate own abilities to analyze markets. Invest in many stocks in many sectors based on rational considerations; some mistakes will be inevitable, but in total good analysis will help to win this game.

      • 2 Replies to warmcamp
      • Hey Warm, Joeslandsup and nli200808.

        Explanations exist?

        There are always explanations but IMHO, the explanations are, in this case, weak at best. I.e. China growth ..... everyone has known that China growth is anything that China wants it to be, this is very old news. A Solar company going chapter 11 in China? Companies are going out of business every day in China ..... big whoop. The press making a big deal of the copper price drop ..... heck, they talk more about the future of APPL every day. The press talks about anything that will get them ratings ..... they've got 24 hours to fill ..... do YOU really think the institutions listen and make trading decisions based on what they say?

        I still ask myself why, after a long time, SCCO suddenly becomes very volatile around 2/3/14 with large swings in share price. Anybody with any brains knows that volatility of this type can only be caused by institutional trading ...... whether it's in SCCO or the price of copper and institutions trade for only one reason ...... to make money. In a nice normal market with slow growth (or decline) accompanied by low volatility its very tough for them to make money trading. They need volatility so they can take advantage of each other AND private investors and have been known to cause that volatility.

        Since the lowly private investor is at the mercy of institutions what can we do? #1. Hold on to your investment for the long-run and disregard short-term swings if you're confident in your investment. #2. Play the swings with a portion of your investment. #3. Panic and bail-out ..... IMHO not a good option for SCCO if you believe in the company future and the future of copper.

        I still maintain that there's a set-up going on with both SCCO, FCX, etc, and NOW copper. For the near term, I'd not be surprised to see 5 point swings in SCCO share price over short periods of time (days/weeks). Faaqcee, you're right, I DON'T "hate to tell you so".

      • #$%$? This stock has recently seen a pretty significant increase and now a significant drop in share price. There has got to be some manipulation going on here. This is a big company so a few cents here are there are expected but not $1-$4 dollar drops in days when the share price is only $30 bucks. I agree with Rogluther, there is something going on here that is causing this that we common folk on the message boards are not privy to. Anybody out there know what is really happening?

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