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Chesapeake Energy Corporation Message Board

  • xxtarsz xxtarsz Jul 11, 2006 2:08 PM Flag

    Major LNG imports start in 2007

    NG prices are going lower.

    12:16 COMDX E.I.A. S-T Outlook: Natural Gas

    In 2006, total U.S. natural gas consumption is projected to fall below 2005 levels by about 36 bcf, or 1.7%, then increase by 91 bcf, or 4.2%, in 2007. Because of the exceptionally warm January this year, residential natural gas consumption is projected to fall in 2006 by 7.4% from 2005 levels and then increase by 8.8% in 2007. Dry natural gas production is projected to increase by 0.6% in 2006 and 1.1% in 2007. Total liquefied natural gas (LNG) net imports are expected to increase from their 2005 level of 630 bcf to 760 bcf in 2006 and to 1,000 bcf in 2007. On June 30, 2006, working natural gas in storage stood at an estimated 2,615 bcf. Stocks are 425 bcf above 1 year ago and 591 bcf above the previous 5-year average.

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    • nice facts but most people that talk about LNG are like you, i dont think you really understand the european NG market, I dont think you really understand some things Russia is doing right now that will limit their NG production and I dont think you understand at what level NG prices will have to be in the US
      for LNG to be a factor. Lng, LNG, some people, maybe not you I dont know, think foreigners are going to ship NG here for 4 to 5 $, not going to happen..........

    • NG Storage increased only 84% of the rate that has been averaged for the last 5 years. As a backdrop, Utility usage has been high and is expected to go even higher as summer hot spell expands to rest of country. In all truth, it's still a crap shoot as to whether 2006 hurricanes disrupt LNG shipping and transhipment to processing facilities--but the likelihood is still higher than the five year average for hurricanes and their impact.

      Or, in other words, NG prices always bottom at about this time of the year into the first two weeks of august. Then they go up for the other part of the cycle, whether winters are average, below average, or above average.

      Now's a good time to buy---since CHK is fairly well hedged against lower prices this summer. And, LNG shipments will have little effect until 2008 if not 2009.

    • The first 2/3 of your post looks VERY bullish. Yes we have an abundance in storage but it will be used up before fall. Prices by end of August will approach $9 and you will still be shorting!!!!Jokes on you!
      More and more people EVERYDAY are using NG. Only a matter of time. Why do people think LNG will be cheap? They won't loose $ by going thru the process, shipping, building terminals then turning around and giving it away. Get real.

    • <<NG prices are going lower.>>

      Where have you been???? NG has already dropped from $15+ to $5.60 or so, so obviously the bulk of the drop has occurred already and is due to the extremely mild winter which resulted in the large supply of NG in storage at this point.

      Come November if not before, pricing will reset with the cold weather inventory supply draws that will occur.

 
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