Obama not the point and besides, I'm a McCain guy. Was merely pointing out that the market has already built in an Obama victory. A McCain upset, as Republican wins have tended to do historically, would likely bump the market even higher. In any case, my main point is that markets don't like instability, including the psychological and political kinds, and tomorrow we will have a new president. That will allow us to all move forward with our lives (like it or not), and money that is presently sitting on the sidelines will begin to flow back into the markets. To which stocks and other investments it will flow is affected somewhat by the election tonight, but nonetheless, the money will start coming back in tomorrow as we all begin to "unclench" a bit as the long political process ends.
Peter is right. Expectations and stock price are so low that anything even semi-good news-wise should be a catalyst for hearty upward movement. Remember AIG spiked up over $4 as recently as Oct 7, and that was before the selloff, before the shorts got out, and before MMs and big boys started to buy big chunks. Feel very optimistic, and I'm in Nov call options so I have my money where my mouth is.
Hate to say it, but market upward move today means Obama victory already built into the market. Market hates psychological instability so no matter who is elected, market and AIG keep moving up. Sellers are all gone and shorts, if reckless enough to still be in, are getting squeezed. I say $3 by end of week, with some small resistance again around $2.5 as well as .20 higher. Earnings beating expectations on Monday, or any other good news re asset sale or renegotiated bailout terms should make AIG rocket imho