Believe it or not there are not a lot of AIG shares available.
Nothing has changed with the financial system or markets since August.
The banks are insolvent. The world banking system is shot. The housing crisis isn't over by a long stretch. 1 in 476 houses in foreclosure and this will double by the end of 2009 as more people lose their jobs...
Unemployment in the great depression was about 30% and about 50% of all homes in the US were in foreclosure... we are headed for higher unemployment and more foreclosures... how big? who knows.
Some say the markets have factored everything and that is why it is so low... we are near a bottom, but there won't be any buying for another year. The rest of this year there will continue to be selling... then again until April of 09 I think there will be more selling than buying.
The reason the stocks keep going down is that there is NO BUYING... everyone is trading and selling into any strength.
Buy and hold is dead for the forseeable future. AIG may pop on news but they still have quite a struggle on their hands especially as they try and unwind their CDO and CDS contracts.