Anyone who is long AIG knows that AIG price rises mostly on short covering. We still do not have trust of big institutions that can take new long positions.
As much as this news is great, the short hedge funds caught with big short position, do not want this to rocket and create squeeze, so they will try every bit of trick in their armor to prevent this from happening
Without new long money flowing into AIG, it is very easy to orchestrate this.
Tek, I believe you have it dead on point. This is exactly what my technicals have been saying. AIG's rise a few days ago was due to short covering. You can see evidence of this by using the ADX indicator. Further, the mere fact that large funds from the likes of UBS, Barclays, and Private Equity (all once major AIG holders) all closing out their positions, does not bode well for the price of the stock. There are no buyers in this market and, thus, without buyers, the price falls. No one wants to try to catch this falling knife, and I can't blame them, as this is the reason why I am short.
Also, I am sure that State Street is ready to unwind their 217 million dollars worth of shares. Since their (STT) earnings come this March 13, 2010, I suspect that they may sell before then. That will be 217 million dollars worth of inventory hitting the bid. Not good!