As the investigation moves on, chances of GS to pay AIG is moving higher.
You speak like that you are handling the investigation and the negotiation. In this investigation, anything is possible now because government is not in business to lose and government owns and invest a huge stake in AIG.
You're betting against Goldman's legal team? No way is GS going to pay AIG for anything. What they did may be immoral and slimy, but it was completely legal. "Waaaa, no fair!" is not legal grounds for getting Goldman to cough up some $$.