Really, I'm surprised that you would think that they will not go below $31. Looking at their balance Q over Q sheet http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AIG their Long term investments have decreased and their short term liabilities have increased. The other driver that will push them to lower earnings is the current market conditions which will further decrease the value of their long term investments, not to mention any recognized losses as they are still in the derivatives business.
I am a retired CPA and am amazed at how little attention is paid to financial statements. I didn't start trading until I retired and thought I had an edge because I could understand financial statements. How wrong I was!!! I lost money big time until I realized that everyone else in the market was following technical analysis. It took a long time for me to switch but now I don't even buy MT (which is trading at about 50% of book value)because the technicals say it is going even lower.