Big money change hands by hedge funds. Fairholme and Berkowitz seems extremely bullish on AIG. Feels like something is up. When hedge funds pile back in, could rally 50% within days.
I'm jumping in! Scary...but looking for big rewards.
you just don't want to let it in, do you?
the market is saying it suspects that the earning projections and valuations used in calculating book value are highly suspect, AND that the overhang of shares available is a huge problem.
No matter how many times you foolish Losers (down about 50% by now, eh, eric?) keep saying everything is great, reality is the market isn't believing it till they SEE the earnings. just about everything else is secondary, except maybe the share overhang.
this ain't rocket science, let alone a baseball game or blackjack or any of your other delusional analogies.
(it's closer to sheep breeding, right akelbuddy?)
too bad this board has converged w all the others on yahoo
i may agree with your post, but there is increasingly little fact (only links are fact) or references to articles (good) but name calling.
the negatives, however, are so sad -- "uh...what if they raise reserves? uh what if a storm? uh... uh...which way did he go?" and there hasn't been anything written not fully baked 25 times into this stock... but dumb money (or retarded money) is good -- remember that -- it makes markets and profits.
great reasoning, as usual (sarcasm intended): assume they will make billions on their highly suspect lawsuits, then conclude they will add billions to their book value.
in logic, it is the fallacy of "begging the question".
here is the fallacy used with a different set of "facts": "I heard that the Great Benmosche says Jesus is gonna fly over AIG headquarters and shytt gold bricks a hundred feet deep. So the book value should skyrocket after that."
that scenario is only slightly less likely than AIG getting tens of billions from former counterparties.
a risk, and always a risk for an insurance company, but not a material view based my analysis of the nunmbers where the cushion is enourmous. will take many quarters to play out and then years to actuaqlize but by the expiry of the aig warrants, they will be my best investment ever, ahead of apple, google and RIO, that I remains sure of...
but then again, I've gone through the numbers and weighed the ups and downs. So has Berkowitz. And now so has DE Shaw. And this makes me more comfoortable than the risk of increased reaserves for a co. selling at 1/2 book w. too much going for it. Then again, I know this already. If the lack of storms persistes, Q3 will be the wake up call for many... 2 months away.