Earnings may or may not be good. The 50sma is only at $36 right now, so this stock can pull back quite a bit. The stock will go up over the long term, but not straight up -- there will be pullbacks and maybe some of them will be pretty big pullbacks too.
What matters is any moves to unlock value and plans to deploy the excess capital. Dividends, buybacks, etc. Acquisitions, too.
I am a long term holder of AIG! Yes, the 50dma is $36.25, and if it trades down to that level it will be a screaming buy. I expect more weakness into the EPS report. Longer term, I expect AIG to double at the minimum from this level.