If this was Nov 20th, 2012 ... then such bullish optimism was perhaps justified, timing wise. But now the ball game has totally changed in the past two days ... Fed is indicating its intention of pulling out its punch bowl ... Sequestration just a week away ... Big boys will book profits aggressively now. Be careful, as the path of least resistance has turned down now in the market. UUP is getting stronger now ... 4-Year-Bull-Rally has gotten old.
As they should after Jan's run up, Big boys took some profits in lead up to earnings. Up 4% AH on a down day today. Methinks $40's tomorrow and should stick. There are many potential drivers over next 10 mos. not being priced in or discussed anywhere on this forum it seems eg. results of FED systemic risk review which I anticipate will be very positive for AIG now capital intensive ILFC is off the books / significant improvement in AIG real assets and remaining asset backed securities throughout yr / growth of international business / improved AM Best rating which should increase client retention and attract new business and allow charging of higher premiums / higher premiums enabled by Sandy / higher premiums enabled later in yr by improved economy and resultant increase in ROI / and let's not forget everyone's favorite dividend likely mid-yr. It's not unreasonable to expect $50+ by eoy as Benmosche will surely pull out all stops to reach BV before he re-retires at year-end. If everything goes smoothly $60-$65 is a real possibility thoug I'll be happy with $50 eoy. This probably won't mean much to you as you appear to be shorting atm.