I agree he's somewhat of a prick. Clearly EXPD won't dump to the level he suggested. When you take away all of the obnoxiousness of his posts (about 90% of the post), his basic argument is as sound as any. If you disagree, what do you think is the appropriate value of EXPD and why.
Ok....so what to do now. In November, I'm leaving the company for an alternative position with another company in a different industry and obviously have told no one of this as I am an "at will employee" and could lose what I have if they knew.
I have nearly 7,000 options fully vested, with an average cost basis of 17 and change. They were accumulated over 13 years. I believe I must exercise (sell) before I go.....or I will lose them. The recent drop has me concerned, as I am not connected in anyway to those that might know anything and I'm far removed from knowing anything about the company's internal growth, future prospects, etc..... Should I just sell what I have now and take the recent price hit.... or should I hold on and hope to see better stock prices later this year? I'm thinking 35 is better than 30, but 45 is also much better than 35! Point is I must sell before November!
First of all, beware of advice from clowns like 'forgetaboutit'. He has no better understanding of the future prospects for this stock than you do. He would have told you to sell all EXPD 6 years ago because of a high PE ratio and you would have missed out on 2 splits.
You should consult immediately with a CPA who has a good understanding of the tax implications of incentive stock options. Your current 'tax return guy' probably won't be familiar, so do some research and interview CPA's. You will definitely have to 'exercise' the options before you leave and you may not really have many choices. Just look at it as gravy and the money you save by getting the taxes right will probably amount to more than the money you will gain or lose by minor fluctuations with the stock. You'll have a nice little chunk of change so interview financial planners as well for better advice on the future possibilities of this stock vs other investments you could make with the proceeds. Best of luck.
First off let me say that I am looking to buy shares of the stock. But I have no interest in it just yet. I think it is a great company and when the economy turns around it will do extremely well. That said it also is still not what I would consider cheap here at these levels in this environment, even though it is getting closer to its lower range of its historical P/E range. Analysts here are way off base and are way behind on this one though and still have their estimates way to high for this and the next year. They still have their estimates for earnings growth in the upper teens for those years and there is no way they are going to be even close to that in this environment. Analysts being behind the power curve as they usually are will finally start to have to reign in those estimates and that will most likely be a constant pressure on this stock until they get it down to about what this company is actually going to earn in this period. I think it will take a couple of quarters to get there with them.