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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

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  • rexobXIP rexobXIP Sep 18, 2009 8:03 PM Flag


    In 2006 ACI was a growth story.

    Today coal is not a growth story as less is being used for coking and electricity.

    2006 was a boom year for the construction industry -- that means lots of steel, therefore lots of coal.

    Going forward, I am not sure that we are going to see that kind of momentum any time soon. Most analysts have a price target around $20 on this stock, so either Arch overshot or...

    Also probably the 2006 price was probably based on projected 2007 earnings and growth was baked in -- I think 2010 is projected as a tough year for coal.

    Toss in cap and trade and this stock looks like it may be rangebound for a long time.

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    • 5 stars for you, my friend, yet I don't agree with you completely.

      I am no Nostradamus, but I don't believe the second half of 2010 will be at all difficult for energy companies. China's economic recovery seems to be well underway, and they will be buying a LOT of American coal, if I am reading the tea leaves correctly, Cap'n Trade is, IMO, likely to go down in flames (much like the healthcare fiasco), and Archie has a great balance sheet and (also IMO) competent management.

      Off topic, but just today I learned that ACI used to be a division (affiliate?) of Ashland, Inc. My dad spent his entire career with Ashland, I worked a couple summers with them, and here I've been a stockholder in a company that I, until today, didn't even know was once a part of that company, LOL.