I am not the best person to ask about stock price, that is the old greed and fear thing. With commodities it always swings way too far each way. So I think the question is, when will it stop "swinging" down?
Right now everything is negative, spot prices, futures contracts, EPA, presidential race (aka - all politics), china slowdown, cheap natural gas, etc..
As others have said, it will probably take (and it really pains me to say this), a complete capitulation under $10 before a true base is reached. Why? Well, there are no support levels, we are at 8+ year lows. Everyone is guessing (heavy volume generally shows the levels) and the shares have traded hands so many times in that period, it is not the same holders. We had two big ones on the way down under $20 and it crashed thru them.
So, what about Arch. I think we owe $4 billion and have a market cap under $3 billion (sad face). We own a lot of reserves, but right now in PRB and App to sell domestically, it costs more to dig and ship than we can get at spot. I remember having 70% thermal (or something like that reported last Sep) under contract at around $14 but the rest going at spot.
How to get out of this "mess"? FYI - There is a ton of shareholders at $27 who bought in when ICO came onboard, they have to be sick to their stomachs.
1. Get as much on ships as possible - Domestically, unless they regulate the nasty side effects of burning NatGas, it will remain fairly cheap with fracking. Longview needs to get permitted and Kinder needs to get filled up fast. EPA can do whatever they want here, China and India don't give a hoot. We live in a global hot tub and the US is not the top burner of coal already ... so the EPA can regulate all they want here, means less and less every year to the world as a whole.
2. Pray for a blazing hot summer - HOT is good!
3. Wait for a global building pick-up - Need steel = Met coal = Burns hhhhooootttt. Gotta' have it.
4. Wait for that "capitulation" when 30+ million shares or more change hands.
Who knows. The coals have missed the "boat" already.
Right now everything is negative, spot prices, futures contracts, EPA, presidential race (aka - all politics), china slowdown, cheap natural gas, etc.."
Just my opinion, but a pretty comprehensive analysis of the factors facing Coal.
Did you see what is going on in India? India lost up to $211 billion in revenue by selling coal deposits too cheaply Both the China and India stock markets don't look too great. IF china and india head south I am not buying the regurgitated decoupling theory.
But If I read him right, your pal, ole sage, thinks domestic is all that matters to ACI..