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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • Run_by_HR Run_by_HR May 2, 2012 4:19 PM Flag

    All statistics aside, all losses aside, one has to ask oneself these questions:

    Arch has fallen for about 57 straight weeks


    1. What is needed to stop the slide? No, really, WHAT IS NEEDED TO STOP THE SLIDE?

    As soon as "the entirety of bad news is out", more surfaces on a daily basis. So what ends this, massive losses? Buffet going horizontal in his freight supply chain? A Delta airlines buying a refinery type action?

    One really has to look closely at answering this question. It has not had an answer for well over a year. Is it a miracle or a natural disaster (Japanese Nuc Reactor) scare, other?

    Buy on Rumor, Sell on News. It will take one h3ll of a Rumor.

    2. Will we longs really be rewarded? Is patience the key to victory?

    I rode Wachovia and Citi into the ground with "patience" in what I thought were good banking institutions. No amount of patience ever brought the stock prices back. It was absolutely horrible. Fossil fuels are cyclical, but is this the end of thermal in the US and is Arch on the wrong side of the met shipping equation with such limited shipping ports now?

    There is no "fair" when it comes to investment. There are winners and losers and some inbetween. But there never was, and never is "fair".

    3. Sell in May and go away. Will that be true again this summer for Arch in particular?

    It is true in almost all stocks each summer. Will Arch be bypassed since it is down so much or go lower with everything else?

    4. Would parking what little I have left be a good thing to do?

    Where? See 3. above. It's MAY for GOODNESS SAKES!

    Best in answering these. I fight with them every single trading day.


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    • Again for all longs, go back and answer the questions posed. Answer for yourselves. It may help.

      How can anyone call something an "investment" that has a negative return for over 8+ years??? Arch, like the airlines, needs to be considered a "trading stock". There is no "investment" to it.

      If there is one Long, ONE who has a LT CAP GAIN in this stock, POST HERE!!! I contend there may be one grandma whose husband worked for Ashland and got a few shares in the conversion before the birth of Jesus who may be postive but that is about it.


      • 1 Reply to Run_by_HR
      • I think everyone is betting on the 400% to 1500% returns it showed before coming back to earth.

        Still it's up 100% since 2000, albeit going and coming like a North Korean Rocket test.

        Nat gas is/will/needs to rise above $2.50 and Nat gas companies are shutting down wells.

        Globally coal fired plants are being built and there will be a supply/demand balance revert to the mean or go to the other extreme.

        Arch has restructured is debts and pushed any significant repayment out to 2016.

        I think long term coal is not dead.

        IMHO... The nimble and the patient will be rewarded in 2014... but I felt the same at $27, $19, and $14

    • Thank you Age.

    • First off, your bad luck is killing you but it's not your fault. As smart as you are, as a retail investor and trader, you will never have the right information at the right time. What you have experienced is unprecedented horrible timing and manipulation beyond belief.

      Yes, taking your cash and "going away" may not be a bad idea for awhile. Being long here might be REALLY LONG in the parlance of today's investor. You can bet NG futures are being bought by the BTU boat load right now and being shoved in a vault until it's "time comes for Wall St to rape and pillage." When we see NG at $5, then coal will come back to life. It might take an autumn Gulf Coast hurricane for an excuse. Coal pricing was still lower and demand was still lower in 2008/2009. Stock price is not reflecting reality. Opex is what is killing the pps right now. In 08/09, coal and oil pricing fell in concert.

      Don't give up just yet, you're smart and hopefully younger than me. You'll do fine in the long run. I plan on putting some cash in domestic firms that perform infrastructure engineering services internationally.


      • 2 Replies to old_sssage
      • Sage: Was that for me?

        If it was, investing is not a fight and it is not about giving up. As I said, there is no "fair" and no reward for altruism, patience or lack thereof. This is about preserving what little personal capital each of us has in an attempt to build some modicum of wealth as we each see it.

        Staying the course won't make anything better. Running away won't make anything better. Not making mistakes will make things better.

        You keep looking at macrocosms when the microcosm of Arch is somewhat different. Look closely at the company, the ginormous debt load from ICO, the Bond return inflation, the failure to get Longview opened in a reasonable time, the "attempted" sale of thermal assets (who knows at this point), the Central App gamble when BTU basically split, etc.

        Again, there is no fair. As I stated in an earlier post, my conversion of 75% portfolio to BTU has saved my bacon so far, and I just made a big mistake going back in to 14.4K total of ACI. Should have stayed with the BAS safe-haven.

        In short, it is just time to stop making mistakes.


      • Ah, the perennial excuse of investors who can't read a balance sheet. "I lost my $$$ because of manipulators, not because I'm a moron."

        How did I know to sell BTU at 60 and rebuy at 28? I'm not an insider, or even that knowledgable about the coal industry. Hope is not an investment strategy. Cold, hard realism is. It was so obvious our commie in chief would destroy coal short term, sorry if you couldn't see that. No boogie man here.

    • Run- Obama losing in November would be a good start!

      Other than that all we can do is pray that NG keeps going up, we have one HOT summer, and China/global demand continues to be strong.

      Not that I am for it, but possible QE3 might be a factor???

      GL!!! I like reading your posts!

      • 2 Replies to johwjohn
      • QE3 or QE anymore has no effect other than to increase overnight bank-reserves. Operation twist and the purchase of mortgage backed securities will have some effect. If QE3 was going to be effective the Fed would have gone for it. They have a dual mandate and they take the mandate seriously.

        It is a misconception that the Fed "prints" money. Yes the Fed creates money but they use it to influence interest rates - short term or longer term via so called QE. Only the US Treasury can get money directly into the economy by spending it - on social security, infrastructure, tax rebates, anything that gets money out into the hands of the people.

        The treasury can also "leave" money in the economy by lowering taxes but the effect may be diluted since some could save that money rather than spending it.

        Under exceptional circumstance the Fed can do more - by
        (1) buying assets like stocks, real-estate, state and local government debt etc
        (2) by buying foreign currencies. Just as China buying the USD depresses the US economy the US buying Yuan would depress the Chinese economy and boost the US economy.
        The tea-party will permit none of the above options (treasury or Fed).
        Watch what they do not what they say. The tea-party pretends to be patriotic but everything they do is designed to damage the US economy.

        US Treasury debt in USD is just an accounting number. The treasury does not need to borrow to spend. They spend first and then "borrow" in order to drain surplus cash from the economy via issuing treasury bonds. this permits positive interest rates so that investors, pension funds, insurance funds can get interest.

        If the treasury did not spend first the money to pay taxes or buy treasury bonds would not exist.

      • Hot summer for sure. Its already hotter than frying pan in TX, and its only May.
        It also is very very dry, little rain and we are on water rationing for lawn and foundation

    • Just the facts: they have way over 3 billion in debt, and zero profit margin at this point. The ONLY reasons to be long at this point are if you think coal is going to surge, or they are going to get bought out. I give either possibility a less than 5% chance. Exporting is a pipe dream with the port situation. BTU is in a far superior position if you want exposure to coal.

    • Same questions I have, been averaging down since $14 wondering when will this finally stabilize. I have this in my retirement.

      The media seems to be saying over and over about how low it is and the loss over 52 weeks.

    • Buddy, that's one heck of a post and you are a brilliant man. I think you nailed Arch's position in the global picture.