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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • golddollarmoney golddollarmoney Jun 8, 2012 9:50 AM Flag

    So who is still selling

    Since ACI is currently at a 10+ year low, everyone selling now is by definition losing money, and many are losing considerable money. Volume over the past 5 days has been considerably below the 20 day MA, and has appeared to be relatively exhausted. By all technical indicators, stock is drastically oversold.

    Anyone have any ideas on who it is that is still actively trying to sell at or near the bottom? I recognize that even those desiring to sell at the absolute bottom won't be able to time it accurately, but would assume we must be getting relatively close (within 10%). Appears that most of the current selling is by retail investors, not funds or large money movers. Anyone have other thoughts?

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    • I don't think we're near the bottom. Check with the mines in the PRB, they're shipping a fraction of what they were shipping just 3 months ago. Many powerplants (those that can) are now burning NatGas. The mines are bleeding cash.

      • 1 Reply to dreggy
      • FYI... ACI has firm priced contracts at great prices for 98 Mil tons of PRB production in 2012. Last year's production was in neighborhood of 110 mil tons. Not that much of a roll-off if you ask me. PRB won't be quite the drag this year that many imagine.

        Next year is a different story. Only about 50% under contract. I believe that we will see a different market environment by that time due to significantly higher NG prices so it may not be a big problem.

        If NG price doesn't recover significantly by fall than all bets are off, for both coal and NG producers!

    • computers / hedge funds that buy and sell for penny gains / no retail guy sells down here unless they are a small time day trader.

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