We are cutting our 12-month target price to $8.50 from $10, still valuing the shares above peers on
an Enterprise Value to EBITDA basis. Given likely increases in natural gas over the next few years
as the U.S. ramps up oil production with natural gas as a byproduct, we expect pressure on coal
prices for years to come. In the near term, stockpiles are being worked down due to production
cuts, a warm summer and cold start to fall, but we expect more switching to natural gas by
utilities in the long term. We expect Alpha to continue to trim production and look to cut costs.