I think given how overbought the market is in general -- the 200 day will be challenged a few times before taking it out. The 50 day is closing in and the trading range is tight between the 50 and 200 but technically, it might be better to go to the sidelines. Many longs are going to cash out of this xmas rally before end of year to book profits and relax during the break. Also, I have a bad feeling the market will sell the news once we finally do get fiscal cliff resolve. The stark realities of the global economy aren't exciting. Growth is slow. It is being manipulated by a monetary base that has expanded dramatically across all major developed nation currencies. And yet GDP is STILL below a normal recovery. I'd say be careful. I chose the sidelines a week ago selling at $7.60 and I feel pretty certain we will see low $7's before we see $9. Just my opinion and there's many ways to make money... including those that are holding for 2 - 3 years... you will make a killing! Swing traders... it's too speculative for my comfort.
Looks to me like ACI wants to fill that large gap on the daily chart. The 50 MA as well the gap itself are providing initial resistance. Appears a flag or pennant is forming right under the gap. I jumped back in after being out of the stock for several weeks. The weekly chart looks solidly bullish. JMHO.
I agree with everything you said. The whole market is indeed overbought. I'm watching to see if it can close above and hold the 200 before I make any moves. I think a pullback will take it no lower than the 7.40's. It is very difficult to put any faith in these low volume days.
I'd say we're in the 40's on the RSI after today. That's plenty of cover on the overbought situation. We could slide lower from here but at least statistically we can move up assuming we get positive news out of the fiscal cliff. I'd say this is a good point to begin scaling back into long ACI.