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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • jondow69 Feb 1, 2013 10:04 PM Flag

    so how do earnings shape up on tuesday?

    any ideas?

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    • I'll let you know wed.

    • What I do know is earnings has very little to do with where the stock will go, nothing has been making sense in this sector for the past yr..exactly one yr ago the stock closed at 14.08 earnings day..over the yr the co has lost only 300 million in net asset value which 320 mil was from depreciation which really doesn't change the asset value of coal, only 10% of real asset loss, yet in market cap lost still double today's stock price...every metric for the sector has improved alot..Euro hitting 52 week highs helping all exporters, Nat still well above last april's low of 1.89 now 3.30 and rising, coal reductions for everyone so pricing has firmed up and has started to rise a bit, china news still decent, yet here we are at 7.00 bucks and no one cares..except Blackrock which has increased purchased this month by 9 million they own 9% of this co...also all insiders options have been priced around 7.23, see all the form 4 at least the risk/reward seems to the upside...also, CNX, and BTU, ARLP all had decent reports...when the money flow starts the move up will be quick..and my guess is ACI will be the catalyst for the whole sector..hopefully...way to cheap here....good luck to all longs, note, blackrock now owns 8-9% of ANR, CLF, and BTU too by recent filings..increasing positions 100% or more in all of these co's in least this takes out more float with longer term holders..

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • We might see a slight improvement in operating costs (app region), and some continued improvements in PRB pricing. I'm looking for a loss of 10 cents, but operating cash flow near $130 million and further improvement to the balance sheet. As we look to 2013, PRB and Western B should be solid, but its all about the App region. Will MET improve or not. If not, 2013 could still log 30-40 cent loss. If Met improves by $30 a ton, we could have a break even year, and very good cash flow and improvements to balance sheet. Bucky's 2 cents...


      Sentiment: Buy