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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 2, 2013 10:51 AM Flag

    This is the BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY in my life!

    Folks I am telling you this is the BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY in my life. Biggerthan anything I have ever seen.
    For one thing commodity sectors are always cyclic in nature. They go from high prices to a low, and then back to high again. They go from very profitable, to un-profitable, and then the sector recover and every one is profitable again. The cyclic movements is as sure as the winter/summer alternation.

    What happened in the past two years is an abnormal aberration. It is as if psring time itself has been delayed by 12 month. It never happened before. But one thing I know is you can delay a season, but the season will ultimately come. It is as sure as you count 1, 2, 3, you ultimately will reach 100.

    Looking at long term charts, looking at how coal stocks movedin past cycles, you will appreciate how giant a gain you could get. ACI could move from $5 to $100 in just oee year. Back in the 2007-2008 coal rally, JRCC moved from $3.56 to $62.86 in 10 months, a gain of 1766% (NOT 17.66%, but 1766%) in ten months.
    This gain will repeat but this time it is much grander, because 99% of people say coal is dead when in fact

    coal is NOT dead, but coal looks better than anything else we have:

    1. Depleting global oil reserve and production. We are now past Peak Oil.

    2. Booming demand from China and its rapid growth of coal imports.

    3. Not just China, coal demand is increasing in EVERY country except for the USA. Should we move to the Mars if we (USA) is so exceptional to the rest ofthe world? Coal demand in USA WILL increase as well, if not due to the temporary aberration.

    4. Cheap and abundant natural gas from shale is an ILLUSION. They tell you 100 years of natural gas supply. But we really only have 7 years worth of NG supply from shale gas.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Let me tell you how to leverage this huge opportunity to make big money:

      Use leveraged margin buying power.

      Buy more use margin on the way up. And then sell a bit to maintain margin when it fluctuate down. Buy those shares again when the price goes up again giving you extra buying power.

      If you control your margin at roughly 33.3%, that means if your stock position goes up to 2.0 times, your portfolio goes up to the cubic of double, which is 8.0 times.

      If ACI goes from $5 to $10 for a double, and the restof your coal portfolio goes up similarly by that much, you turn X amount of money into 8X amount of money. You turned $50K into $400K.

      And then when ACI goes from $10 to $20, for another double, your portfolio is multiplied by 8 again, to reach $3200K, a cool $3.2M. But who is to say ACI will peak at $20. How about $40.

      That another double from $20 to $40 per share gives you another multiplication of 8, so now you will have 8x$3.2M = $25.6M. Can we do it again for ACI to reach $80. That's a price ACI reached before, right.

      One more double from $40 to $80 per share now gives you $204.8M. Not quite a billionaire yet. But you started with $50K and you make enough money to retire comfortably.

      Stick to coal. Don't let this tremendous opportunity slip away from you.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to cadmium_telluride
      • Bottom line: Obama wants to create a legacy for himself by "creating jobs". It does not matter how much he will put the Country in debt, even if it does not make sense. The natural gas bull@h$t is on his agenda. And until he is out of the office, the coal sector will be continue to be in the house of pain.

        Obama's philosophy: It does not have to make sense in the "long run". It just has to be "common sense". Spend as much as you can because everyone loves a guy he give things out for free (at the expense of others).

        This black president has a lot to prove and he is putting a bandage on "everything" he sees and hears. As long as he is in the White House, there is no "real cure".

    • Let me say a bit more on the shale gas bubble. They tell you we have 100 years worth of natural gas supply from shale gas. Where do they get that number?

      The technology extracts only 3% to 5% of original gas from underground. We we produce coal mines, we dig out 70% or more of the stuff from underground, and we (USA) have 200 years worth of supply.

      Some how they tell you that hydraulic fracturing, an inferior technology which could only manage to extract 3% to 5% of the underground shale gas, versus 70%+ for coal, could manage to supply USA for 100 years of natural gas needs. Do you see something wrong with that picture?

      The bulk of buried ancient plantation bodies turn into coal. And then a smaller portion gets boried deeper and turn into oil, and then an even smaller portion turn into natural gas. That is a known scientific fact.

      So globally, talking about buried fossil fuel underground:

      Coal is much more than Oil, and oil is much more than Natural Gas.

      That is the quantity underground. Now 70% of underground coal is produced, and only 3% to 5% of underground shale gas is produced. Which is more then. Are you going to tell me that 3% to 5% extracted shale gas is more than 70% extracted coal?

      Coal remains the king of fossil fuel. Stick to coal stocks.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to cadmium_telluride
      • The coal sector is being politically challenged! Fundamentally, there are too much money to be made in the natural gas sector. And no one is stupid enough to not play along for a bigger piece of wealth. Other than the non sustainable up day (a trade if you are lucky to be on the right side), the coal sector will need to borrow more money to stay afloat until Obama is kicked out of the White House.

        It's nice to brain wash yourself to stay positive. In reality, coal is burning every shareholders' pocket right now.

        Bottom line: If ACI can't show they can make money or show some smart ideas, the stock will go even lower when the global over bought market is ready for a correction.

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