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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 15, 2013 2:48 PM Flag

    I Am Holding Firm Amd I Advice You Guys to Sell!

    I am holding and buying more tomorrow, as my cash deposit finally comes in.

    Mean while all you guys who need to ask me, I advice you to sell and then walk away in pain. It's your money and it is you choice. You can't take the pain then you go away.

    For me I am holding firm and I still project a huge coal rally in 2013. Stuck up your ears and just don't listen if you don't want to.

    Do I need to repeat the bullish factors in the fundamentals:

    1. The coal sector is inheritantly CYCLIC. It goes to extreme highs and then extreme lows and then move much higher again.
    2. The natural cycle of the coal sector is generally short, due to the low ratio of stockpile space versus annual consumption. Normally I expect a turn around in one to two years. The US coal turn arund is long over-due.
    3. The factors that crushed coal and natural gas price have now GONE. The un-precedent natural gas gut, 1000+ BCF at this time last year, is totally GONE.
    4. The natural gas price has more than doubled from the low of $1.89/mmBtu. It's long over-due for coal to make a similar move up. But utilities are switching back to coal due to the price disparity.
    5. The plummet drilling rig count has finally show its effect to bring down NG production. Even Bakken oil and gas production has collapsed, down 4% in Jan. 2013 compared to Dec. 2012.
    6. China's coal imports continue to grow exponentially. China imported 289M tons in 2012 versus 182M tons in 2011. In the first 3 months of 2013, China imported 80M tons, which is annualized 320M tons.

    Stick to coal stocks. This is the best imvestment opportunity in 2013.
    I remembered sticking to palladium mining stocks PAL and SWC andheld shares firm at the end of 2008, when SWC dropped to $1.70. I was greatly rewarded as SWC rallyed to $25+ in the next 2+ years.
    Every one was laugh at me for holding SWC at the time. I told them to sell below $2. I could care less of their loss.

    Today, I am ten times more confident that coal stocks will rebound huge.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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