Yes, you were correct, if you refer the the price action today.
But, to me, your reasoning sounds like: tomorrow ACI will fall because the Moon is round.
A person saying that would be right for the past two years!
It looks like you think that it is still 2010-2012 and gas producers are heavily spending CAPEXes; coal producer are thinking that there is no need to adjust supply, Nat Gas is $2, and the the cold March-April 2013 did not just happened. Things have changed in the business, the commodity prices are about to change, and coal stocks will follow at some point. Nothing stays still. Do not live in the past, or you will join those people that are still screaming that railroad companies are bad investment and thing of the past ... those people were right for sometime, stock prices supported their thesis until oil prices started to rise and the industry adjusted!
Give us some numbers, explain why coal futures several years out are higher with coal, not lower as with Nat Gas and yet, according to you, coal does not have future. I am willing to take any reasonable explanation why ACI will continue to fall.