Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • red_gorilla_ff0000 red_gorilla_ff0000 May 15, 2013 3:14 PM Flag

    Any guesses about thermal coal inventories at the end of April?

    We know that inventories at US utilities were 174mt at the end of March.

    What is your number for the end of April?
    We will know the official number during Joy's conf call on May 30 ... but who wants to wait, right?

    My guess is around 177mt. As usual, with lower inventories in PRB and higher in CAPP.
    I realize that this number is not as important for ACI as the PRB inventories, but those we will get only in June.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • So if the future is improving, and the markets are still at all-time high, why do you think ACI (and all the others) share price is doing so poorly?

      • 2 Replies to bodava4
      • I do not know why stock is not reacting. Also, I often do not understand why stocks react. I guess is that ACI is bigger than just non-CAPP coal. There is a lot of valid negative information on other parts of business. Met Coal, for instance, is not recovering and bouncing off the bottom (hopefully Q3 benchmark will be at or above $165 for Australian), 5 billion in debt, Leer mine is still a question, etc

        All I know is that US thermal market (non-CAPP) is rebounding, and, some regions, PRB in particular, probably going to over-correct. That, I can predict (with several 'IF NOT' disclaimers: NG price, EPA, weather). But it looks like none of those 'IF NOTs' is going to happen before the correction. In my previous posts I mentioned that utilities need to get/buy coal that is unpriced/unplanned before October 2013 (and that is to fix 2013 shortage only). Utilities cannot afford to end year with just 50 Million tons in PRB. With current price of Nat Gas it is cheaper to overpay for PRB coal than to switch to Nat Gas. And they it is cheaper to overpay for coal all the way to high teens.

        PRB prices are recovering since last summer, so what make now any different. Recent 2 month of colder weather combined with nat gas well over $3! That was not planned for in CAPEXes! The only thing that can erase that shortage is cool summer ... and now as we approach it forecasts predict normal-to-warmer summer.

        I see that EBIDTA in "consensus estimations" is lower a lot for 2014 (and a little, just 8 mills for 2013) than it will be because of recent changes in prices

        GL

        Sentiment: Hold

      • My guess is that only coal stock holders such as ourselves believe that the "future is bright"

 
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