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  • jkwelli jkwelli Jul 16, 2013 8:34 PM Flag

    China announces it will triple solar capacity by triple by 2015(35 gw)

    Copied from SLV but confirmed in pv magazine.

    China quietly announced that it's unleashing the largest solar power blitz the world has ever seen.

    Previously, the economic giant had planned to install enough solar panels on its soil to generate 21 gigawatts of electricity by 2015. Which is a lot—enough to power some 20 million homes. But the recession put its solar companies in debt. Then they were slapped with international trade restrictions, and then they were left sitting on a massive glut of photovoltaic panels. So China decided to double down.

    In a public statement issued on July 4th but only published today, China's State Council announced that it is raising its solar production target to 35 GW. Which is pretty much mind-melting. In the US, one gigawatt is enough to provide power to 750,000-1,000,000 American resource-hog homes. A gigawatt in China will therefore go even further.

    This announcement means that China is going to add 10 GW of solar capacity every year until 2015. Environmentalists went nuts when California, one of the nation's solar-friendliest states, hit the one gigawatt milestone. If all goes according to plan, China will install that much in August.

    But let's back up. For some context on how unprecedented this plan is, how supremely audacious it is, consider this: as of 2006, the total energy demand for the entire United Kingdom was 40 GW. China will nearly be able to meet that with solar alone in just two and a half years.

    Think about that for a second—if China meets its goal, it will be able to power the world's sixth-biggest economy with clean solar energy alone. And it will have built the vast majority of those power plants in just three years. Less

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    • All rightee. It is obvious solar power is making big strides. The combined solar power in china will be able to light up three 20 watt light bulbs in 2015 as opposed to the one 20 watt light bulb solar power lights up today.

      In time, solar power in china might be able to ramp up to several 40 watt light bulbs. If that isn't progress, I don't know what is.

    • Coal will still be their primary fuel for a while yet.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • jkwelli, in 2015 china will not be producing electricity from solar equal (or remotely equal) to consumption in UK in 2006, even if the plan described in the article succeed! The funny thing that the author wrote BS numbers and we swallowed his BS without checking the numbers. I think the author did not try to confuse us, he just does not know what he is writing about. If it was not for what cadmium_telluride wrote, I would not try to verify the numbers and believed the author.

      jkwelli, you are better than this! You should have verified yourself before posting that!

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to red_gorilla_ff0000
      • Thank you! I try to provide accurate data.
        Please help provide clarity where I, or what I copied, was inaccurate.

        I had skimmed the SLV author's article and the pv mag article. Both numbers roughly matched.

        The author claimed 35 GW would be roughly enough for UK, it seemed reasonable to me.

        I have always read that 1 GWH could power 1 million homes per year. Number varies depending on country obviously as some countries, like US, use much more energy.

        ALso some homes use dual fuel gas and electric for energy needs.

        So 35GWH x 1m homes = 35 million homes. I have seen numbers on the net that say there are 24m households in the UK.

        So viewed from this perspective, it seemed that CHINA's 35GW goal would provide ALL the energy needed for UK homes.

        That does not cover energy used by UK industries.

    • Let's put numbers in context, OK.

      One watt of solar panel will generate 1 KWH of electricity in a year under normal sunshine condition.

      So if China installs 35 GW of solar panel in the next five years, they contribute 35 billion KWH of electricity. But China is already consuming 4.9 trillion KWH of electricity per year, higher than the 4.0 trillion KWH of the US. We are talking about solar contributing a percentage of 35 billion / 4.9 trillion = 0.7% of China's electricity needs, less than 1%. Totally insignificant.

      More over, you don't wave a magic wander to producer solar panels. They cost huge upfront energy to be produced in the first place. Just to produce one watt of solar cell costs 10 KWH of energy, which most likely will have to cone from fossil fuel energy. 35GW worth of solar cell will thus cost 350 billion KWH of electricity just to make the solar cells, divide it by 3 years figures into 120 billion KWH per year, or costing 2.5% of China's total electricity in extra demand. In terms of coal demand, that's 65 MILLION TONS extra coal demand per year to generate the extra electricity just to make the solar cells, or half of US exports.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to cadmium_telluride
      • ive heard all this tech #$%$ before on seeking alpha and in support of coal i.e jrcc etc and what you dont seem to understand is that the markets running on borrowed time completely devoid of fundamentals and technicalities. i made 20K on CSIQ doing the opposite of what you say and i lost 10K on JRCC doing what you said. i made another 10K in HSOL. and lost 5K on ACI. i did this on 5 other solar Vs coal stock. The rebound in coal may come it may not come. We may never revisit the highs or we may go higher. Point is you tech jargon means #$%$ all for the last 2 years (of me reading) and will mean #$%$ all today.

      • I don't know how much excess solar panels are lying around China due to tariffs.

        I like CHINA's goal since it would appear to keep solar alive and viable for the future.

        I am not one to say solar will replace everything, nor that solar advances will happen in a hurry.

        I am also not one to say that since something will not happen immediately that it should be abandoned.

        I would be happy if in 30-60 years solar contributed 30% supply of electric demand.

    • george_bush_is_a_loser george_bush_is_a_loser Jul 16, 2013 10:22 PM Flag

      great news for solar stocks!!!!!!!!! No more coals are needed in China after 2015!!!!!!!!!!!! Coal will be replaced by solar everywhere in the future!!!!!!!! Coal is dead!!!!!!!!!!

    • Never gonna happen....just like it will never happen in US.

    • This is impressive if it happens by 2015. Recent promises did not go through. Like ban on low quality coal ... we can kiss it goodbye.

      Btw, still waiting on Pr. Obama's promise to have 1 million electric vehicles sold in US by 2015. There are 17 months left ... TSLA must ramp up production. It is hard to hyper-loop from the current 100K to 1 million in 17 months! :)

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to red_gorilla_ff0000
      • I didn't expect China to move this quickly but in light of their slowing economy and challenged solar industry, this wold be a good move to keep their solar companies working.

        This confirms what I said before, US can drag it feet on investing in solar R&D but other countries WILL continue.

        Doubt Us will hit $1 million plug-in vehicles by 2015.

 
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