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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • red_gorilla_ff0000 red_gorilla_ff0000 Aug 21, 2013 4:03 PM Flag

    On Monday EIA will report inventories as of End of June

    ACI thinks it is 170 m tons
    Moody thinks it is 164 m tons (from their coal sector upgrade note)
    Let's see what EIA will report. I think it is going to be slightly higher than ACI's estimates

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • You sold so wht do u care

      • 1 Reply to iitriumvirate
      • "You sold"?
        Where did you get that? I did not sold. I even bought several thousand some time ago and posted about that on the board ... I think the purchase was for $3.9X ... but my original position was so much bigger and at much higher price that the last purchase did not lower my average (maybe a couple of cents) :(.

        But to be fair ... I wish I sold ACI long time ago, as I am way underwater on ACI. I need around $3 up to be start making money on ACI.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • Actually, EIA published coal inventory numbers on Aug 22nd for June.

      Total: 170,751 (down from 177,977 as of end of May)
      Sub-bit (Mostly PRB): 82,416 (down from 86,793)

      In 2011, in June, Sub-bit inventory was 83,599 ... and it fell by the end of August to 67,775.
      I think ACI several months ago was right on the spot predicting 65 mton PRB inventory by September, which is just a week from now.

      This inventory correction thesis is getting more and more real.

      GL.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to red_gorilla_ff0000
      • Coal inventory down 7M+ tons in a month is pretty big.Most notably sub-bit was down nearly 16M tons in one month.

        As I said in July, amid plummeting coal spot price, that coal traders were PURGING their inventory and that sets up the stage for a quick and violent coal rally. As when there is no more coal inventory to absorb price volatility, you expect even much more price volatility.

        And that was end of June coal inventory figure. Who knows how low it has gone, by now, after the peak usage in July and August?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy