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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Aug 23, 2013 3:23 AM Flag

    For Two Years I Pound on the Table On Super Coal Cycle!

    For Two FRACKING Years I Pound on the Table On Super Coal Cycle repeatedly!

    Who listened? Those who listened to me stick to coal and suffered with me for two years. And now just when the coal super cycle gets started. You saw a one day pop of +5% and you sold and get out.

    You sold and give out your hard earned shares, the very shares you held firm for two years at a loss, to the shorties to allow them to cover, for a meager $4.65 per share? Why do you do that? Why do you sell your shares? You have listened to me for TWO YEARS and not a single word I said had penetrated your ear drum and get into your brain? WHY? WHY? WHY?

    Is it not true that things in coal, like in any commodity sector, always go cyclic? You go down and then you go up again, just like there is next day's sunshine after a dark night. Why you sell at the low then?

    Is it not true that the NG industry spend $170B per year drilling shale wells. But 10 TCF per year shale gas will collect them only $35B of gas revenue. This is NOT a sustainable business. This is a PONZI Scheme. The collapse of the shale industry will surely come, sending both gas and coal prices skyrocketing. Yet you sold your coal shares and buy natural gas losers like CHK, just because Cramer told you so? WHY?

    It is NOT true that China's coal imports expands rapidly. When China's coal imports almost doubled year over-year you consider it a normal growth. When it grows only 30% year-over-year, some call it a SLOW DOWN or even an out-right collapse. Give me a break! Even a 10% Y-o-Y growth is huge, not to talk about 30%, not to talk about the huge base figure, as China consumes more than HALF of the world's coal.

    Is it not true that northern China, facing extreme water crisis, has to choose between coal mining and water preservation? They can not have both. If people there want to survive and want to live, they have got to cap coal production, and rely more heavily on coal imports.

    Coal super cycle is alive and kicking. Ride it up!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Coal super cycle is alive and well, it just started. You have seen nothing yet.

      The biggest mistake you can make, is sell too early, way too early. Don't make that mistake.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I think you broke the table.

    • Funny how people like yourself reads an article and then all of a sudden you are the leading expert in the field (LMAO). You blew it kid so get off the pot!

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Mark,

      THe super cycle is well under way. If all goes well, ACI could hit $4.75!

    • The coal commodity sector, just like any commodity sector, is always cyclic in nature. And due to limited inventory space compare with annual consumption volume, the cycle period can not be longer than one or two years. We are long over-due for a huge coal rally. The US coal stockpile has dropped from record high last year, to now around average level today. It can move to a record low by this time next year. You think coal price will not move up, if coal stockpile is diminishing?

      More importantly, the US shale industry is collapsing. This industry spend $150B per year on capital spending to produce 11 TCF of shale gas, worth $40B. They do not have an unlimited capital supply from foolish people to sustain the Ponzi Scheme for very long. Collapse of the NG industry is hugely bullish for the coal industry. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • JZZing AGAIN art thou. zzzzzzzzzzzzz

    • Do your fists hurt from pounding on the table for 2 years?

    • I agree that coal will turn bullish, possibly for several years, given the extensive capital investment, skilled labor, environmental studies, bureaucracy and time required to ramp up mining projects to meet new demand. I don't believe it will begin, however, until natural gas prices go up substantially. I predict a sustained rise in natural gas, possibly to 5-8 bucks or more, by 2015. Right now there is a manufacturing renaissance in US especially in industries that depend on ng as fuel or feedstock. But it takes 3-5 years to build these large complex mfg facilities, e.g., Valero, Dow. I also see extensive conversion of transportation vehicles to natural gas in municipalities all over country. 50% of new garbage trucks run on cng. UPS is considering converting fleet of long-haul trucks. NG infrastructure projects and filling stations are getting built. Right now there are 3 federally approved LNG export facilities and more will follow, but once again these facilities take years to build and export of LNG won't really get going until 2015 or 2016... however, I expect a tsunami of demand for nat gas in 2-3 years as electricity gen, mfg, transport and export all compete for Nat Gas and I can see a severe, even traumatic spike in ng prices by 2016. Coal prices will follow and the new norm will be nat for trans, mfg, export and coal for electricity. Then this stock will regain its old glory...30 to 100 per share. We have possibly up to 18 months to accumulate before the large spikes come. Accumulate and hold. Who's with me?

      • 2 Replies to thethirdchimp
      • You have to look at history. Historically natural gas price has been extremely volatile. Price can go from record low to record high in just a few months. The fundamental reason is there is a relative small windows of inventory space, roughly 3800 BCF, versus annual supply/demand of 28000 BCF, or that inventory space is only 7 weeks worth of supply.

        But historically the natural gas supply has at least been relatively stable, with steady production rate from conventional gas wells. Nowadays, a bigger and bigger portion of natural gas supply comes from shale wells, whose supply is inherently UNSTABLE to begin with. A shale well starts with very high production rate and immediately starts to drop rapidly within 24 hours. A well's production can drop by 80% or more in its first 12 months of production. In most shale plays, up to 50% of existing production rate needs to be replaced by production from new wells every 12 months.

        This inherently unstable natural gas supply will only add to natural gas's historic price volatility and push for a more violent and more extreme movement of price between the very low and the very high. In roughly one year, NG inventory has dropped from record high, to now at a normal level. Continue on, it can be pushed to record low in less than a year from now. Price can not stay low and steady for such extreme movements of inventory level and such extreme swing of production level.

        So don't bet that you have very long time to accumulate. Look at in the past how fast coal sector can go up from the low. It was always swift and violent. This time it will be more so. The past coal rally did not start from like $30 or $40 per share. The past rally also starts from a very low share prices. So don't let current low price fool you on how high coal shares can go, and how fast it can happen!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • edgordon@ymail.com edgordon Aug 23, 2013 7:45 AM Flag

        Well stated. Inclined to agree. Don't see any real coal recovery until 2014/15 but when it starts it will be as dramatic on the way up as it has been on the way down. I am holding ANR, ACI and JRCC and will add when NAT GAS becomes sustained over $5.00 in 2014

        Sentiment: Hold