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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 30, 2013 11:15 AM Flag

    I Believe in the Coal Supercycle

    However, i don't believe that it will be getting underway until 2015... but when it does, it will be dramatic and long-lasting. Three forces will coincide in the coming years. First, coal mines shutdowns and production cuts will continue as the glut will continue for at least a year. Second, natural gas demand has to pick up. Third, world economy has to pick up and Europe in particlar must recover. These three forces are underway but will not be intensely apparent until 2015. I am especially convinced that natural gas demand will explode by 2016 and the industry will initially be overwhelmed. There is currently a manufacturing renaissance in the U.S. that is counting on cheap, plentiful natural gas for feedstock and fuel. There are literally hundreds of new largescale mfg facilities being built right now but they will not be complete for another 2-4 years. Also, municipalities and big companies are switching their trucking fleets to natural gas. 50% of newly produced garbage trucks run on CNG. Ford and other companies are now introducing natural gas pick up trucks and vehicles. Trains, too, are switching over to natural gas. Billions are currently being invested in setting up the infrastructure for fueling and servicing natural gas transport. I suspect that natural gas will become a transfort fuel of choice and coal will be primary for electricity. Finally, by 2016, 2-3 LNG export facilities will be up and running and more LNG exporters will follow. The worldwide demand for natural gas is going to explode. Regarding Europe, it is now at a bottom and expected to begin recovery. Their unemployment rate is above 12% on average and when this figure comes down, the demand for electricity and for everthing worldwide will really pick up. Accumulate now and hold for the greatest, longest lasting and perhaps final coal supercycle in our lifetime... ACI to 100/share in five years

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    • Remember, Arch anticipates losses for 2013, 2014 and, yes, even 2015. So how high can the stock go?. However, when the turnaround comes, it will be fast and furious. Accumulate now for the future. I predict that 2015 will be the year of the start of a great and longlasting uptrend.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy