Remember Ackman and HLF? He lost tons predicting it would go to 0. Then he lost even more betting JCP would go over $30 this year. Its all a guessing game when trading more than a year down the road. Maybe he is a friend of Obamas and knows some insider clues we are unaware of, but I doubt it.
Yes, that purchase of 3000 $2.5 2016 puts is interesting. Basically it is a bet on BK ... to be precise, this is the bet that the probability of BK by Jan 2016 is 40% or higher (money losing if probability is less than 40%) ... scary!
If the reasoning for that trade is as good as the reasoning for the Morgan Stanley downgrade, I am not worried. Just because someone throws $300,000+ at a trade doesn't mean they know what they are doing. Also, someone else was willing to take the other side of that trade and it definitely wasn't an individual investor. I would think georgebushtheloser would be dumb enough to place that trade but I know he doesn't have $300,000 because he lives in his mom's basement.
2015 is my prediction when ACI rebounds. That's when the LNG export terminals go into operation. 2014 will likely be another breathing-through-straw year for ACI. As long as the straw doesn't get cinched by Obama it's going to make it.