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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • frey_guy17 frey_guy17 Oct 19, 2013 3:40 PM Flag

    Coal is here to stay. Like or not.

    Any carbon-rich resources will eventually HAVE to be used as the economies (hence DEMAND) of third and second world countries continue to grow. Coal will still have a "sweet spot" in those countries where NG is prohibitively costly. Even if the US eventually exports LNG, this is estimated to be at least a decade away (for significant volumes to be shipped, at HUGE capital costs, which will have to be subsidized by Uncle Sam). So, don't believe the ludicrous comments about the "death of coal". That is just plain dumb talk. China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam...all will be demanding more energy, and coal will play an important role. Solar ? Not feasible for poor countries, and in countries where capital costs are high. NG ? Either virtually not available, or too expensive. Guess what the MOST popular fuel is in India ?.........WOOD. I am sure the greenies here are loving that. The larger coal players (specifically BTU and ACI) are already gearing up for exporting coal, and that will happen, in significant volumes, over the next few years. The per-ton coal pricing right now is at historic ROCK BOTTOM in real dollars. As NG demand rises (it WILL, and already IS), NG prices will RISE commensurately faster than the so-called "fracking boom" will sustain production. As NG prices rise, so will coal. Recall those folks here who predicted 2 dollar NG ? Hmmmm....don't think so. So, if you're energy-smart. PLAY ALL of the sector: Coal, NG, Oil and nuclear (vastly underrated, IMHO). Solar and Wind will be important REGIONAL plays, but not important on a large scale as even the EIA admits that in the next TWO DECADES, even with improving technology, wind and solar will not likely exceed 3% of our total power grid production (i.e. in the USA).
    Frieberg, long both ACI and JRCC, and using XOM for NG/oil play.

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    • great post. i am currently long kol but don't have an individual coal stocks. i still see huge risk here but like the potential reward. i agree with your comments on solar. solar is overhyped and many are gonna lose money playing those stox. they act like biotechs and are very high risk

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