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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • brawn412 brawn412 Jan 22, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    Boone Pickens Predicted This

    A year ago Boone Pickens predicted $5 NG this winter and maybe $6 next winter. He also predicted $4.50 NG for last winter. He made the $4.50 prediction was NG was $2. Of course he hit a bullseye with that prediction.

    How can Boone be right on all the time? Because Boone knows the EIA production numbers for NG are a fantasy. The EIA is influenced by the energy business and it is in the interests of gas and oil companies to prop up their stock prices and further asset sales by fabricating rosy predictions about NG.

    The New York Times tried to document how bogus EIA production numbers are. I don't know how successful they were but they did point out that state production numbers for ng, such as from the Texas Railroad Commission were wildly different than numbers the EIA published.

    The fact is that we are producing a lot less natural gas than the EIA says and consequently a lot less NG is being put into storage each week. Helps explain why this year we are having frequent storage withdrawls of about 300 when storage withdrawls over 200 have only occurred a couple times in the prior 5 years.

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    • Of course, couple production with the constrained infrastructure to get the gas to the end consumer ... aka 'New England anti-coal states' and you have a NG shortage mess on your hands.

      The media is just now picking up on the price squeezes out there (and the shuttered businesses because there is not enough gas to go around for electricity and heat). End of this week should be interesting, they can't bury cost to the consumer anymore when it is just skyrocketing.

      I hope the congressional energy hawks pick up on this. Please.



      • 2 Replies to run_by_hr
      • It doesn't become real for people unless it starts costing them money.People didn't get riled up about Obamacare until they started seeing how much higher the premium and deductibles were on Obamacare plans. Now there is widespread disapproval of Obamacare.

        The run it all on natural gas strategy is not a good strategy and will result in higher electricity prices and energy shortfalls during extreme weather events as the people of Boston metro area experience. I don't know of many areas in the USA that raise electric prices during winter months. See below.

        Natural gas costs will push electric rates up Demand, lack of capacity cited
        By Erin Ailworth Globe Staff November 19, 2013
        National Grid’s new rates went into effect Nov. 1 and run through April. The basic service rate for residential electric customers of National Grid will be just over 10 cents per kilowatt hour, or nearly 3 cents higher than during the same period last year, according to the utility. The average monthly bill for customers using 500 kilowatt-hours a month will rise to roughly $88.25 from $74.38.

        NStar customers, meanwhile, will see their electric bills start to rise after Jan. 1, when the utility’s basic service rate increases nearly 2 cents to just over 9 cents per kilowatt hour. The average monthly bill for a customer using 500 kilowatt-hours will increase to $96.56 from $87.42.

      • I would say that it is serious problem when you have to close your business because you can not get electricity to run it. This is the United States in the year 2014 not some 3rd world country I am pretty sure the congressional energy hawks will hear about this.

    • Even China is up 2% today. so if today coal stocks cannot go up, then it is hopeless.

    • what does this have to do with coal ?

    • He also bought ACI and lose his arss too!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL