The EIA says natural gas production is 4% higher than this time last year. If you look at the EIA numbers for weekly natural gas changes in production they show that natural gas production has declined 4% from this time last year.
The moral of this story is that EIA numbers and projections are nonsense.
We will hit ng storage of 1000 in early May. We will hit 2000 sometime after the 4th of July. We will be lucky to hit 3000 by the start of next heating season.
Why??? Because natural gas production is declining. You cannot get blood out of a turnip and you can not get enough natural gas out of horrible rock called shale.