Zoltan Ban, an energy analyst, has published data showing that Marcellus natural gas production increases is slowing. This is largely due to something called legacy decline. The decline in ng production from existing wells is increasing faster than production from new wells is increasing.
The EIA is predicting that the Marcellus will increase production this year by 3-4 trillion. Zoltan Ban finds this highly improbable. Increases in Marcellus Shale production this year will be much less than that. And when legacy declines balance with productiopn increases there will be no increases in Marcellus ng production. Something that may happen this year or next year.
Outside of the Marcellus, natural gas production is declining at about 3 trillion a year. Marcellus production increases have negated that decline recently. However, when Marcellus ng production is stable or, OMG, decreases, we will have significant declines in total natural gas production.
The key point here to consider is that there are more than 800-1000 wells drilled and waiting to be linked to infrastructure. So while Marcellus gas production increased wells drilled are slowing in the Marcellus the fact that there is many wells drilled and not pumping is the culprit not the decline in gas within the well. More infrastructure to come this year will actually allow for increase in total output.
yes, there about 1000 drilled but unconnected wells. Apparently 400-600 are being connected each year, according to data from Chesapeake. Not all of them will be connected because some of them are dusters/duds. However, when they are gone or when the number being connected declines, production in the Marcellus takes a hit - a big hit. These drilled but unconnected wells account for about one quarter to one third of all new ng production from the Marcellus.
Incorrect. The key point is who cares! Marcellus fields are not connected the the primary markets who need it (NYC, New England). What dey gonna' do, put it in weather balloons and float it over to them?
The only thing that matters here is distribution limitations.