I'm changing my prediction to 85%/15% we get the deals done. I heard it may take until May however before the well reconfiguration tests are completed. I think you can pick up shares over the next 30-60 days in the $.07 range so pick your spots here.
Hang in there longs. Good luck to all. I think we see good days ahead with big changes, how hig we go is anyone's guess, I think we at least triple from here.
What is unique about Blue Mountain?
It is the shallowness of drilling depth necessary to commission a power plant.
At almost everywhere else, it would require several times the depth.
Drilling is god awfully expensive.
But drilling in most other places is triple god-awfully expensive.
Blue Mountain was begging to be developed.
Blue Mountain turned out to have some remarkable surprises.
It turns out that Blue Mountain has more potential that anyone had suspected.
Why is this?
Only toward the end of construction did anyone ever consider, “What is down there deeper?”
It turns out that our Blue Mountain is virtually on the top of a giant volcano.
It could support as super plant that is an order of magnitude times larger.
If we could start over, a project of that magnitude would have probably been considered.
Why didn’t we go there?
The expenses, and perhaps current technology,
of drilling these deeper holes was beyond the reach of this struggling company.
However, it is true, and on the record, that toward the end of construction we stopped.
We told Ormat that we should extend the schedule and install larger [more expensive] turbines.
That was a gamble on the belief that Blue Mountain could be bigger than envisioned at the start of construction.
Unfortunately, NGP started needing a lot of money at a time when it became very difficult to get money.
This phenomenon is still going on.
If we only had lots of money, you would be shocked at what we could build.
Along those lines... NGP's release on 1/17/2012 states their program to preserve capacity was initiated in 2011. Three wells were selected (58A-15, 38-14, and 89-11). In Nov. 2011 well 58A-15 began injection, and in late Dec. 2011 well 38-14 was put into service. The results of these two wells have already shown lessening of temperature declines. Declines at two wells (14-14, and 26A-14) appear to have ceased. Well 89-11 was put into service in Jan. 2012 starting at 500 gpm (capable of 2000 gpm). They expect results from this well to further moderate temperature declines.
This was all done with only having to move some pipelines. No new holes needed to be drilled! The article does go on to mention, however, that it will take 20 million to drill a new production well and two more injectors, but they believe these wells could take them to 42 MW net.
Anyway... It does seem that progress is being made on the production side. Now it would be nice to hear some good news on the financial side.
NGP plant management didn't necessarily agree with GeothermX's analysis of the long term temperature degradation when the announcement was made. The "plant" people were extremely confident that that issue could be resolved. I believe the reconfiguration will remedy that issue. I believe they can easily get back to 36 MW's net and well over 40 if they can drill another couple of holes. I believe they have a viable plan to finance and execute said plan.
For those thinking BM and NGP is worthless to a potential buyer, think again. If the reconfiguration is successful and a new buyer can eliminate, or replace the EIG loan, this plant has tremendous value. Add in guaranteed 20% of Crump and the rest of NGP's properties, this company still has value even in a liquidation sale. Whatever you think of the Casey Group, they valued NGP at a low price of around $.30 even with BM in it's current shape.
I think we see better days!
Many believe, that the oft mentioned negative annual temperature declines of 2% to 3% are written in stone, without NGP making costly expenditures. So judging that situation with a positive outlook, an increase to 41 MW (net) or greater- without further expenditure could possibly occur.
In an earlier NGP news release, dated 12/23/2009, 47 MW (net), not written in stone was also mentioned.
"NGP is very pleased to have achieved a new benchmark level of production of over 30 MW (net) of clean renewable power from our showcase geothermal power plant," said Brian Fairbank, President & CEO. "Interim drilling results forecasting new deep injection capability at Well 55-15 will lead to significantly increased power production and bring us closer to our ultimate goal of 47 MW (net) for the Faulkner 1 plant."