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11/8/2002 Sugarr_daddy makes his/her appearence on this board: Price = $16.20
11/29/2002 Still at it: Price = $19.83
Dont go anywhere I love the education.
Again, you know the "equation" but you are leaving out a few critical variables:
You do not know the time horizon of anyone but yourself and you CLEARLY do not know enough about the products that Avid produces to take a stab at what the market opportunity is for Avid and thus the earnings. If only everyone knew what GE or MSFT would do way back in the day we would all be very very rich.
Interesting observation and excellent post! Did you also notice that FICA_Dude and Count_Vladimer also made their debuts on Nov. 8. If you count all of the posts from this guy using at least three IDs, you'll see that he's spending most of his time talking to himself. It's amazing how many of these Yahoo posters think their words have an effect on a stock's price.
However, I do agree with him that Avid is selling at a pretty rich price. I got out this week after doubling my original bet. Maybe I'll miss a little more upside, but getting greedy can get you in trouble, I've found.
I think Count_sugarr_Dude eventually will get back to even on his short if he can afford to stick it out for a while. Avid does have a history of big price swings. Too bad he bet on the wrong direction when it jumped recently to $16. He should've waited another month before placing his bet.
I'm sugarr, sugar.
This is gonna be like taking candy from babies.
Thanks for the heads up guys. And in the true sugarr tradition:
Give me an A
give me a V
give me an I
give me a D
and what does it spell? AVID AVID AVID
Are you surprised that professional shorts keyed into Avid once it "popped" onto their radar with after a high percentage gain?
Do you really believe after reading the posts from this crowd that they are fickle goofs buying & shorting blindly based on graphs?
Do you really believe that a pro would immediately short a target during the uptrend and before the goofy momentum guys ran out of gas?
Are you sure professional investors don't work together and when banded together are all the same people?
Even if you were correct, what good would this do a trader unless he was spooning "propaganda" instead of numbers (like the longs here do)? Numbers speak for themselves and you must have noticed that the quality of the negative posts is off the scale; while the longs are ......?
Did you know there are "paid" short sites on the web targeting companies like Avid?
Did you know ........
Kindly add me to your list of sugarr_daddy imposters as I too am negative on Avid, intend to short (not short yet, believe it or not), and in general believe the longs here are nitwits.
but, you can call me guenther
Thanks Backup and yes I did notice that fica and Genius are one in the same.
I also agree that Avid is not at bargain prices here but based on their recent performance, market opportunities and past trends I am willing to bet that if we get some really good numbers for Q4 it has some room to move into the low-mid 20's.
The basic problem with the genius's argument is that he/she assumes we are all going to buy and hold forever...well, technology changes and business climate changes dictate when to get in and out not just the math. "Long" does not mean "blind" just confident given the facts today and the past trends. I am out at 15 with a profit if things go south and I am in until the mid-20's if they deliver then I will re-evaluate.
One thing the "genius" say is true...Avid is not a T-bill, but you will be hard pressed to make 20% in a month with a T-bill (read: aint gonna happen). The risk/reward factor is why we are here and not sitting in t-bills. Congratulations to you and all the other folks here who saw an opportunity and took a risk, that is what this Country is all about!
....."If only everyone knew what GE or Microsoft would do way back in the day we would all be very rich". Watchdatrend, are you serious?
Is this a confirmation that you are just taking wild guesses in the market and have no idea how it adds up?
Do you really believe that Avid's another GE or MSFT?
Are you sure no one had any idea that Microsoft or GE were making money?
Are you sure they had no growth in eps, never had any numbers worth mentioning, and just took off for no reason?
Or, are you suggesting that great investors, like you, buy into companies BEFORE there's any financial sign of progress?
Watch, you are a gem.