I disagree with your notion of being way overpriced. I think that it is now in the middle of its potential trading range. Yes, it is likely to go as low as $15 but it is also likely to go as high as $25. My guess is it will trade higher in the upcoming weeks, especially leading up to NAB. After that, my buys get filled.
I'm guessing that retails coupled with short covering will push this higher in the near term, with an eventual decline to match the overall economic sentiment.
Then again, I thought it would break $18 before the earnings release...
Look, I just got here..I've been following it for a while and watched it smoke the shorts..Most were blown out in the lower 20's, but i'm just curious, how more would they have had to taken guidance up for $20 to be justified..They took it from 59 cents to 79 cents, and that was just the midpoint of revenue..they took Q1 estimates from 4 cents to 15 cents..So how much should they have taken them up to get you to cover your short or buy it outright.
i think your comment is absurd. it was way overvalued before when consensus was .59. Now it is overvalued, just not as much. $20/.80 = 25x PE multiple.
In order to justify such a steep multiple, market has got to believe that this thing is going to grow at a rapid clip for the forseeable future. That is probably what most retail guys believe, but smart money on this one is short. It should trade down to a 15-17x multiple on .80 or $12-$14. I think it will get the pop in the morning, then new shorts will come in and we will be in the mid teens in a couple of weeks.
"decent earnings release but I am sorry to tell you, the market isn't going to reward you for it. This stock is heading to $15 within the next couple of weeks.
Valuation much too high, earnings release couldn't justify it."
thats the most obsurd statement I've ever come across..It may go to $5, but the earnings release justifies a much higher stock price..They just took full year guidance up 35%..The stock will pop at least three bucks tomorrow..I got 1000 at 19.80 and 1500 at 20.35..I'm looking to buy more if someone will sell me some in the 20.50 range.
decent earnings release but I am sorry to tell you, the market isn't going to reward you for it. This stock is heading to $15 within the next couple of weeks.
Valuation much too high, earnings release couldn't justify it.
This must be really hard on you. I'll bet you never dreamed Avid would be this strong in late January when you shorted in early November. Perhaps your prediction that it will fall to single digits within three years will come true. But here's another prediction: Avid will hit 30 at some point in the next three years, too.
Some day you may become mature enough to understand that the market moves in two directions. The trick as I've said before is to be on the correct side of the move. When you learn to do that, even you can make money. In the meantime, try to learn from what some of the kind people on this board are trying to teach you.
By the way, I think it's really cute how you bring fica, one of your many aliases, into your posts and then respond to yourself minutes later when you change IDs. That's surely the sign of a mature investor. Forget the games, kid, and focus on the lessons that those who understand Avid are providing to you at no cost. As hard as it might be for you to believe now, you too could be a winner some day if you work at it.
There's no need for a cover story engineer.
I caught you in a lie, it's not the end of the world. Everyone here knows you're a goof anyway, but who cares? The only opinion that counts is your own.
It's OK if your familiarity of a wealth of mind numbing drugs comes from first hand use.
Today, you took a tiny step admitting your close association with mind control medicine. Let's not make it worse with a cover story.
The medicine is not working.......tell your physician about what Sugarr has done to you.
You are pathetic.
Fica, you know what you can do with your advice?
Remember friends, Sugarr's grandma will earn $0.80 for every $20.00 she invests in US Government T-Bills. Since Avid won't come close to 80 cents this year, has never earned 80 cents before, and is not expected to earn anywhere near 80 cents next year, why do you believe it is worth 30 times earnings? That is $20.00 per worthless share?
I appologize in advance for using numbers and asking a math question. Feel free to answer my query using smoke & mirrors.
Like it or not, 3 years from now, Avid will be trading in single digits. This is a 99% certainty. Along the way, many novices will be fleeced as management and people like me cash in. This saga has been played out for as long as I've been alive.
"Remember friends, Sugarr's grandma will earn $0.80 for every $20.00 she invests in US Government T-Bills. Since Avid won't come close to 80 cents this year, has never earned 80 cents before, and is not expected to earn anywhere near 80 cents next year, why do you believe it is worth 30 times earnings? That is $20.00 per worthless share?"
I think you'd better re-evaluate..78 cents is now the guidance and thats the midpoint of revenue guidance..
I'm surprised at you. We went over this at the Avid Group last night.
Avid's claim they should trade at 38 times earnings is based on "next" year's projected earnings (that's 2003 for the numskulls who are already confused).
Like you said, they never earned a dime yet, so their actual p/e is an imaginary number....unless negative p/e's are acceptable.
Next year we win...tomorrow we'll be the best....wait a little longer.....the future is bright.......forget about actual results......2002 is already over.....we are forward thinkers.......we don't dwell on the past.........soon we'll make more than Grandma.........
I love you ...........
You're only a day away..........
DTV, your boss says to wake up and get her some coffee.....out of that cube.......stat!
First, allow me to congratulate Sharon on his victory. Having said that, I beg to differ with you, Fica, on the appropriate Avid p/e ratio.
The p/e should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a company's expected long-term average earnings growth rate. As Avid has been experiencing negative earnings, a positive result for 2002 translates into that mystical quantity known as "infinity".
Based on the above, I have no problem with Avid's 30 p/e. In fact, I predict a triple-digit p/e before too long.
I also agree with Imanedit that no one can predict earnings (and so why try) and that unless you know the tops and bottoms of stock prices, you cannot make any money. What's this nonsense about being right in 3 years, a joke?
The Warren Buffets of the world are finished. This is the New Millenium and it belongs to day traders.
I must go now and take my medicine.
You cant "cash in" unless you know when...anyone can predict that a company will eventually be out-teched or go under due to poor management...I do not know how you plan to make money on your prediction unless you know precicly when it will happen