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Avid Technology, Inc. Message Board

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  • inewsrobert inewsrobert Aug 9, 2012 11:22 AM Flag

    If you think Gary and Ken have a clue...

    Historically, Avid's first and second quarters are always painful.

    There are two major tradeshows, NAB in Las Vegas at Easter and IBC in Amsterdam in September.

    Nobody in US buys anything in the first quarter as they are all waiting for the NAB annoucements. They start to firm up their buying decisions and wait for the new budgets to start up after 1st July.

    As for Europe, no one is buying until IBC. Then we get to see if the NAB promises turn into real products.

    In the 4th quarter it is a buying frenzy as those with budgets that close in December must buy spend their money and those with a July budget are ready to make a purchase.

    So look for a better 3rd quarter and a stronger 4th quarter.

    Now the European ecomony is about to go into the tank, the double dip recession is about to bite and if the Euro against the Dollar weakens then that will affect Avid's bottom line. And the US elections in November could upset a lot of 2013 planning (but then it could do the opposite). So I am a soft buy on Avid.

    It has tested the 'lows' of $7 and sustained that for some time. It seems to be resting at $8.5 looking for a new floor.

    The only movement I can see is up and I like $11.50.

    As for selling the company? I have heard this knocked for a long time. Even Jim Cramer thought that HP would 'snap up' Avid. Any broadcast (Grass Valley, Thomson, Sony) or computer company (Dell, HP) does not have the money to buy anything.

    Unless it is someone like Google, with more cash than sense, I don't see a buyer around.

    Maybe you can tell me who you think that the board are trying to sell to?

    • The pieces of AVID are worth more than the whole. The new CEO Louis Hernandez has been brought in to sell the company in total or in pieces. He is experienced in doing that.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Part of the problem is Avid is exerting all of its efforts in trying to appease the wish lists of its demanding enterprise customer base. Their diminished development teams are behind playing catch up instead of working on new and innovative products. All for desktop technology that is becoming outdated. For any "buying frenzy" to occur, they need to really make an impression with something new.

8.31+0.08(+0.97%)10:56 AMEDT