It is going to hurt more and more...it is going
to be like a big elephant's DICK trying to get
IN....sorry frined....but this is the story of most
Wish you where LOND..:):):):)
re: message #4055
RIGHT ON - as sad of news
as that may be to us Avid stock owners - it's the
truth! You wanna make some money - go invest in EDIG or
DCHT. They have growth potential! The days of Avid
skyrocketing up to 50 are over. The days of Avid stock
plunging 11 points in one day may not be over...
Would a professional editing house that is
working for a major studio use AVID products or Apple's
FCP on their Apple PCs?
I believe more
professionals in the industry who are working for major studios
and who own Apple PCs, are using AVID's products on
Apple PCs rather than FCP when they want to obtain
Avid got their ass chewed years ago by Media100
and others on the low end. FCP now owns the very low
end, let it go, the high(er) end is where they can
shine, and they have a loyal base. Web broadcast, no
matter how shitty it looks right now visually, still
requires editing and creativity. Among avid editors there
are the techs who can make the thing work however
uncreative and the artists who produce worthwhile content.
Certainly, the new breed of people doing really good stuff
on FCP today are like the toaster people that were
good 7 years ago, they need and want to move up to an
AVID. Avid went down the HDTV rat hole, maybe in the
future there will be a market for that stuff, but the
company that will make the most money there and the ONLY
companies selling there are the ones who can up-sample the
existing content. Really, is I love Lucy a better show at
1920 X 720 progressive any better than 720X480
interlaced? When I watch it, I forget that it's not even
color, 'it's the content stupid'. Avid has alway been
assisting the creative talents of people will sell good
content. FCP can produce the exact same producton as the
most elaborate production suite. It's a cost vs.
creativity vs. productivity thing. A great editor/producer
working against deadlines won't use something like FCP
because with a good system he can try more things in the
time allowed and produce a better finished product in
8 vs 16 hours. A professional landscaper won't use
a little Walfart mower, he'll buy a big two blade
industrial for ten times the money, because it makes him 10%
more productive. Creative people don't want to be
frustrated by their tools. Media 100 made inroads because in
the 90s because new users weren't intimidated by the
tools, and it was an open system allowing them access to
other tools thru Quick Time instead of OMF. The
Hollywood guys aren't cheap, if Avid just comes out with
incremental improvements that allow an improvement in
personal productivity that's even fractional, they're
worth their weight in gold. Then they'll become the
gold standard that the FCP users will aspire too.
The point here is that mid to high-end post
production editing, which Avid undeniably owns, is not a
high growth market. Depending on which research report
you read, the growth estimates range from 5 to 8
percent a year. So Avid is stuck selling to a market it
already owns, which translates to limited growth for a
fat cat high overhead company like Avid. Upgrades and
one off�s will not support Avid�s exec
So you say, web streaming is a growth opportunity.
Yes it is, however why would I buy a DV Xpress that
has half the functionally of a FCP system at 2 to 3
times the price. This is where the problem is for Avid.
They have completely bastardized their product line so
the functionality of their low-end systems is highly
limited compared to entry-level systems of competitive
products like FCP. They can�t open up the low-end products
with better features without sacrificing their pricing
models of the high-end systems like Composer and
Then you get into growth markets, even in film like
India, and they are not going to spend 60k on a film
composer when they can do the same thing on FCP and sling
shot for 20K. No question it will take more labor
possibly more time but in the end they get the same
product for less money. Some will some wont, but limited
growth never the less.
Do yourself a favor and
take a look at the specks of FCP and compare them to
DV Xpress or Avid Xpress deluxe or elite as well.
You will find that FCP offers more functionality and
a richer feature set at a � of the price of any of
the fore mentioned products from Avid. FCP�s problem
has been good I/O boards and that problem will most
likely go away at NAB this year.
problem, if I am a high end post facility, why would I tie
up an expensive editing system rendering material
for web distribution when I can just buy Media
Cleaner Pro and get all the streaming tools I need, for
under 600 dollars. Export a QT file from my Media
Composer and encode it on media cleaner pro. No upgrade
needed here to get to the web, just a Media 100 product
to get my Avid working in a growth market.
Avid is in a very difficult position and it is one of
the reasons their stock is so low. Just because they
are the best at what they do, and own a mature market
dose not mean that they are poised for growth and can
capitalize on immerging markets with no loyalty to Avid. The
arrogance of many of the previous posts is pervasive of how
Avid operates as a company. FCP poises a significant
threat to Avid in all of the growth markets Avid needs
to get into to survive as a company and support the
continued development efforts of its established customer
If you can�t see this you have been editing on
Avid�s products two long and don�t understand how to run
a company and make money for it�s investors.
Yo-yo-yo.....all cool long cats....next stop
PJ's target of $18 was hit in 3 week's on no
news....this means a new upgrade is coming....maybe at
Or maybe if we do not hear anything soon but it
pumps ahead...this makes a buyout a sure deal...and it
is going to be for no less $33 a pop...either way
enjoy...and get your shoping lists in the works....
Long forever...Petar the MAX!!!!
I go with the flow rather than try to fight
the tape. And shorting is too risky! I just
to laugh at all the editors that refuse
convert to FCP because they will no longer
in another few years! OBSOLETE!
This stock was rising well before today's news.
Methinks buyout rumors most likely fueling it (avid will
never be this cheap again). If it is MSFT, which seems
somewhat curious but within the bounds of reason, what do
people think a proper buyout price would be? I'm seeing
25 bucks a share as enough to get majority support.
If it does happen, it'll happen fast, ie: before
NAB, but I'd say 80% likely Avid is not bought out.
Either way, we'll see mid 20's soon...