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Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) Message Board

  • aegeanmario aegeanmario May 27, 2009 12:16 AM Flag

    After SCLX , i do my dd on SEED

    folsk why does SEED have such a high market cap with only 24 million $ equity and losses every quarter ?

    Are not you also concerned that the company reiterated its guidance for 2009 WITHOUT providing earnings but cash flows and revenue only ?

    i am not bashing, i just want to understand this company.thnx.

    discl: i have SCLX with a growing production of 350,000 tonnes liquid fuel as of today (it was 100,000 tonnes until February) which moves to a major listing this summer.

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    • All of these people that have answered this post are the same people 12 at this count if your lucky maybe seed gets one post a day sometimes nothing for three four days in a row and longer ........... But to day somebody posts an 12 people have something to say about it ....... Bull shit quit talking to your self this stock a POS do all the DD you want the quit talking to your self All these post half a dozen stars to go along with them yeah right after months and months of nothing now were all suppose to believe this is 12 different people having a conversation about seed give it up stupid After your DD call this loser co. and ask whe GMO is coming listen to BULLSHIT at it's finest...... this stock will only do something after they get it so low they can buy all the stock at below dirt cheap price and then take it private ..... off the stock market why not have others invest till you get done with your research then drive the price down and take it private ..... remember one thing when dealing with these little slant eyed pieces of shit you are at there mercy when it comes to the truth ..... where is the GMO been almost 2 fuckin years past due no word one way or the other believe me they either got the word and it was bad news or they got the news at they are not telling you jack shit because they want it all to themselves call them and ask them then call SEC. ...... POS

      • 1 Reply to flabdabit
      • sage,i believe that these numbers are not enough to justify its current market cap. The serious investors want GROWTH and EARNINGS and LOW PEG.
        These are the criteria for the serious investors. All the rest is speculation for me. jmho.

        flabdabit, your comments are not worth any comment.You say too much but you do not say anything

    • You didn't do any DD on SEED, and if you did, you deserve to lose your shirt.

      This company is not allowed, due to somewhat arcane GAAP accounting rules, to report revenue in the 2Q. Even though their customers bought seeds and gave deposits for seeds, Origin can't book that revenue (i.e., put it on the P&L), at least not until their customers take possession of the seeds !!! And so if they can't put the revenue on the P&L, they can't leverage, in that particular quarter (the one ended in March) all of the expenses required to run their business. That is why the net income line is a loss. It is only due to the fact that such a large % of the revenue is forced to be taken in the 3Q.

      In the meantime, SEED has to put those revenues on the deferred line, as in "deferred" until their customers take possession in front of the planting season.

      That is why the only line that matters here is the deferred revenue line, because it shows you what will soon fall right to the bottom line. It also shows how much cash and cash flow the company is about to report.

      SEED provided full year revenue guidance...that's the picture that matters.

      I am not going to do you work for you, b/c I hope the shares stay low for a little longer as I can acquire them at leisure...hopefully I have some more time to sell other stocks and buy more SEED.

      Bashing the company in the past was a no brainer, because the company could barely communicate. And then there was a glut of seeds on the market thanks to a fluke -- a one-time change in structure in China based on a policy shift by the government that ended up flooding the market with seeds and depressing sales/margins.

      The good news is that the oversupply proved temporary, and prices/margins are now rising. The good news is that the elimination of subsidies by the govt has caused hundreds of seed distributors to gop belly up. So, SEED is that largest player standing in a smaller pool.

      So, supply is down, prices are up, demand is up, and sales are accelerating. As sales are growing, SEED has embarked on a cost containment program, and so SG&A is declining, which means earnings are now positioned to grow a lot faster than sales.

      What we have here is a company whose earnings are finally poised to surprise on the upside. The stock, even after a profit-taking pullback, is up 40% just on that. It will continue to go higher once the day traders and shorts get shaken out once and for all.

      Why would I want to hold a stock that can now surprise positively on earnings, can report and preaanounce earnings early, has govt support, has a phase 5 GMO seed about ready to be approved (can happen any day, any second), has 2 more GMO seeds in the pipeline that can also move up from phase II to phase II to phase IV, and has a clean balance sheet??

      If I were short, I'd get the hell out soon, rather than suffer the indignity of another short squeeze on any one of a number of catalysts about to unfold.

    • Great, the shill for SCLX is back....

    • Seed is the future. That is why. China will be starving in a few years if they do not tripple there food production.

    • As always, the morons show up at the wrong time to taut something else.

      The clueless always seem to be "smarter", NOT!

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