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Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) Message Board

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  • jl.meyers jl.meyers Jun 4, 2009 9:56 AM Flag

    SEED has 10-bagger potential

    It is ludricous to compare Seed to Montosanto. See these numbers

    Seed / 2006 / 2007 / 2008
    Revenue / 523 / 490 / 513
    Net / 76 / -163 / -43
    EPS / 3.25 / -7.01 / -1.88

    In the booming years there was no growth and they manage to lose money.

    Mon / 2006 / 2007 / 2008
    Revenue / 7065 / 8349 / 11365
    Net / 689 / 993 / 2024
    EPS / 1.28 / 2.08 / 3.72

    This is a company that looks healthy.

    The balance sheet of Seed looks extremily weak. Way over leveraged. Current assets are 925 million RMB and current liabilities are 1055 million RMB.
    So the company has more short term debt then cash + cash equivalents.

    I prefer to invest with regard to the numbers and not with regard to fairy tails. No doubt there are companies that play the chinese market better than seed. Perhaps Montosanto jumps in.

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    • the market was flooded with small rogue seed companies. Then when the gov't decided to kick in regulations all the small companies dumped seed onto the market crushing the market by inflating the inventory. Also SEED was just coming out of the gate and in the process of developing product expanding capacity, restructuring the management team and implementing new off site sales model. Most of these rough times are in the rear view mirror in my opinion. Just a few of my thoughts.

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