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Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. Message Board

  • bigbucksfreddy bigbucksfreddy Jan 20, 2009 9:06 PM Flag

    phil, randy and carolyn...

    You have ALL said ad nauseam that BBBY would "tank" after options expiration. You all had some conspiracy type, market manipulation b.s. that was "keeping it above 25". "Just wait" you all proclaimed until OpEx. Well, I'm still waiting and guess what?? BBBY is doing much, much better than just about any retail stock right now. So please stop with your whining. I'm sorry your short position isn't working out as you were so positively sure it would. When the market goes green big tomorrow, BBBY will follow it up. Logic, people. Logic.

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    • hey ahole,

      In case you havent noticed, the RTH (retail index) is in a downtrend. It broke down this last week and is now below its 50-day MA. According to Bill O'Neil's work on stocks (outlined in his 1987 classic, How to Make Money in Stocks), 1/3 of a stock's performance is dictated by the health of its sector. That alone makes BBBY a perilous proposition, as it's swimming against the current of a dead consumer.

      It reminds me a bit of JPM. Remember last year when JPM defied gravity for a while on the notion that it was "better than the competition". It was the white knight that was marching in at the last minute to save those other "irresponsible banks" like Bear Sterns and WAMU. Remember that? What do you know? The same ills beseting the rest of the sector have now begun to reflect themselves in JPM. Check that sucker out: 5-year lows minted today.

      Or how about URBN (Urban Outfitters)? Same story. They bucked the sector trend until September of last year. Those clowns even had the audacity to raise guidance in the 2Q of the year. But, in September, the BS began to unravel and the stock began to take it in the chin. Now, it's a $15 stock.

      BBBY will have the exact same outcome. The market is currently reading way too much into last quarter's "beat". The fact is earnings will be contracting sequentially for as far as the eye can see. Earnings drive stocks. The key here is patience. I'm done adding for now (unless I get a super price like $27).

      My cost basis (before commissions) is now $25.38.

      For the record:
      3000 @ 25 (last week)
      500 @ 25.50 (last week)
      500 @ 26.00 (last week)
      500 @ 26.50 (last week)
      500 @ 25.75 (today)

    • The downside to the economy is just too damn powerful. The unemployed and those fearing for their jobs are going to cutback all non-essentials.

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