Thanks for the post it's good to know what a pro is doing phil.
The biggest challenge for me so far was to decide if hyperinflation or deflation would be the end result. It seems to me that the depression will continue to be deflationary for some time (Japan-esque). Agree that betting against the weaklings/overvalued companies that were designed for bubble conditions seems safest for this environment.
At some point I'd like to go long hard assets and companies that will do well in a world of rapidly dwindling resources, but I see that move in the space of years not days or weeks. I'm pretty sure BBBY won't be on that list 'cause Peak BBBY occurred somewhere around 2006 har har har
The one sector I'm positive on long-term is gold. The US wont allow the system to collapse, so theyre going to keep printing insane amounts of dollars to devalue away the currency and debase the debt as they go.
Watch for gold/silver to ABSOLUTELY ignite higher over the next few years. Also, the TBT is a safe long-term bet as foreign governments diversify away from the dollar and into their own infrastructure projects and gold.
I understand it as a geopolitical hedge and also in troubled times there's the primal desire for something tangible of value (was feeling that way myself last October). Ideally I'd like a small amount of physical as a hedge for SHTF situation.
However, I've been hearing "gold 2000 next year as gov't prints" for 2 maybe 3 years straight. There's a whole industry that seems to be built around convincing folks to "believe" in gold. I guess 2000 is bound to happen some time and I would go long sub 600 as a trade.
I am going to miss Freddy, I actually started to like him. It's nice to have an optimist around and he was really chipper, polite and probably a fun guy in person. I won't start a "bring freddy back" petition but half hope he takes c's offer.