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Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. Message Board

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  • gestumble gestumble Jan 30, 2009 10:44 AM Flag

    Let me make something clear

    I understand it as a geopolitical hedge and also in troubled times there's the primal desire for something tangible of value (was feeling that way myself last October). Ideally I'd like a small amount of physical as a hedge for SHTF situation.

    However, I've been hearing "gold 2000 next year as gov't prints" for 2 maybe 3 years straight. There's a whole industry that seems to be built around convincing folks to "believe" in gold. I guess 2000 is bound to happen some time and I would go long sub 600 as a trade.

    I am going to miss Freddy, I actually started to like him. It's nice to have an optimist around and he was really chipper, polite and probably a fun guy in person. I won't start a "bring freddy back" petition but half hope he takes c's offer.

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    • Gestumble, with all due respect.

      You're not going to see sub-600 gold. I've seen reports that show Indian demand (most of gold's physical demand comes from Indian jewelers who sell gold-plated necklaces and bracelets for weddings, especially during the monsoon season) has actually been flat to down in the last 6 months. However, the gap is being filled by massive investment demand (think China, Russia, ECB diversifying away from the dollar as a reserve currency). There is a diminishing set of investment opportunities in the market today.

      The obvious ones are long precious metals and short government bonds. And there's a lot of intelligent money in the sidelines that will have to go somewhere, and it sure as hell doesn't wanna go into AAPL, GOOG or BBBY. Emerging-market infrastructure is another destination, but the challenging credit market (and the huge amount of projects getting scrapped) makes it a tough field to make money in (state and federal governments are filling the void there -- at least that's what's happening in Brazil; my home country).

      I have some physical gold and silver myself. I bot some gold a few years back at 640. I added last year at 750 when shi_t started hiting the fan. Right now it's tough to buy more because gold is extremely overbought, but it remains very cheap relative to the DOW and oil. I think 2,000 is the first step. Longer-term, we'll see 5,000. You can write that down.

      • 1 Reply to phil_fgv
      • Yeah Phil, thx. That was no prediction for 600 gold, what I meant is that's the only price (right now) I would go long. By the time I believe the gold story it will probably be too late!!!

        Once again, thanks for the other input. Fortunes are definitely going to be made and lost in the next few years, good luck to you.

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