market is just too oversold for covering not to happen in some degree this week; potential for a 500 pt up day is in play if something comes from the mark to market talks as well; went long a few index plays on friday; glta
5000-6000 looks almost a certainty by summer
now that we touched 800 we are in no man's land, odds still say pullback for consolidation and then retest the rally high for further breakout; been selling positions last couple days, now waiting to reload at either 740-760 area or break of rally high mark ; good luck..
we basically hit my first target area today (780) so i took some off the table, and this was natural resistance to put in a short trade (FAZ); i still think we will rally to 800-820 but my road map tells me we pullback on some profit taking to 740 or even 720; i will close FAZ near 740, and put back on some of the longs i sold; i'm sorry you doubt me, i've been on my best streak of the year over the last 2 weeks and i never get greedy!!! I expect 720 to hold... all in my opinion, good luck
FYI- we've had a 16% rally from 666 to today's high, and if we get to my 800 then that is a 20% rally ...
hey Brian, what the hell, didn't you predict 780, 800 and even 810 SP on this post from LAST FRIDAY MORNING??? according to you, you didn't think it would be bearish until "the end of April"...
But you are now a bear until SP drops to 720?? are you for real or just that a great of a day trader when you can get every single dip???? I am starting to doubt your posts...
This rally is for real, buy all pullbacks over the next few days, imo.
Took a little profit just now, but this move is very broad based and on high volume........... bullish= SnP 800 coming in next few weeks
Good call brianm, congrats. It seems to me like the major moves from the prior year are rhyming, and I got burnt last year around this time being short.
It's the right time of year and deeply oversold + two quick 90% upside days is serious action not to be ignored. Oct/Nov was the last time three days of gains were so large IMO a lot more upside coming because conditions are more favourable now than at that time. Maybe even that elusive 50% multimonth retrace some were expecting after Oct.
Longer term though, I think there is a good chance this is going to be the mother of all sucker rallies that clears out the savings of a good chunk of the middle class... not to be pessimistic :-) We just can't seem to exceed 1929 decline rate, heh heh
Good luck all, congrats longs, what a market.
if they fiddle with m2m we head lower. Accounting rules won't change reality. It may change the regulatory definition of insolvency for the largest banks but it won't change their zombie status. The never ending and continuously shifting rules of the game are half the problem.
>>>The never ending and continuously shifting rules of the game are half the problem.<<<
It doesn't matter how cheap something becomes if you can't understand it, you still won't buy it. At least, that's the case with myself.
Take this for what's it's worth: my wife met someone who worked for AIG writing up CDS contracts. He said he himself didn't understand how the damn things worked and doubted anyone else did either. Is that possible? Can you write up contracts and investment vehicles you don't understand? I guess so.
Lack of transparency
+ shifting rules
+ overly complicated instruments
= eventual freeze-up and implosion.
I don't see a way out, at least no easy way out.
hmmm I bought some calls on JNJ Fri but I am maintaining a (not overly aggressive) core short position. Thought about this over the weekend and (for me) the main reasons to be long are:
-"This week's American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey reported the level of individual investor bearishness hit 70.27 percent. This is the highest bearishness level report by AAII since it began tracking investor sentiment in 1987". So, too much bearishness.
-The most frequent months for rallies to start are October and March.
That's about it... oh yeah the equinox too :-) From what I can make being long now is a weak argument... but I'd like to be convinced otherwise.