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  • gestumble gestumble Mar 13, 2009 7:52 AM Flag

    THINK THEY DO A TARD RELIEF RALLY THIS WEEK

    Good call brianm, congrats. It seems to me like the major moves from the prior year are rhyming, and I got burnt last year around this time being short.

    It's the right time of year and deeply oversold + two quick 90% upside days is serious action not to be ignored. Oct/Nov was the last time three days of gains were so large IMO a lot more upside coming because conditions are more favourable now than at that time. Maybe even that elusive 50% multimonth retrace some were expecting after Oct.

    Longer term though, I think there is a good chance this is going to be the mother of all sucker rallies that clears out the savings of a good chunk of the middle class... not to be pessimistic :-) We just can't seem to exceed 1929 decline rate, heh heh
    http://www.dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

    Good luck all, congrats longs, what a market.

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    • One more thing, a good link "Identifying Bear Market Bottoms and New Bull Markets":

      https://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/2002DowAwardb.pdf

      "our 69-year record shows that declines containing two or more 90% Downside Days usually persist, on a trend basis, until investors eventually come rushing back in to snap up what they perceive to be the bargains of
      the decade and, in the process, produce a 90% Upside Day"
      "These two events – panic selling (one or more
      90% Downside Days) and panic buying (a 90% Upside Day, or on rare occasions, two back-toback 80% Upside Days) – produce very powerful probabilities that a major trend reversal has begun, and that the market’s Sweet Spot is ready to be savored."

    • thx.
      this is setting up for a multi-week move but i expect pullbacks along the way (got FAZ today for a quick flip on the short side), but i expect 780 at the minimum and more likely 800-810 at the least; either way i agree that by end of april you want be net short again and ready to ride it back down during the summer doldrums

 
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