Newly diagnosed GBM patients represent a potential market of about 720mm per year (at $30k per year.) If we assume that life expectancy is about 3 years with NWBO approved process ( as opposed to current 14 mos) annual revs could run about 2.1B. That would be a home run. If successful I would expect less than 100% mkt penetration making revs something south of 2.1B. But, the first few years would get a boost from folks already diagnosed with GBM.
70-80% the researcher is inconsistent in the numbers.
I would agree somewhere between 20-30%.
NWBO apparently has at least some issue with lysate protein or they would not have the following in their recruiting info.
"Patients must have sufficient tumor lysate protein that was generated from the surgically obtained tumor material. This determination will be made by Cognate BioServices, Inc. (Cognate) and communicated to the clinical site through the Sponsor, or its designee."
What percentage have that problem? Are there any released numbers?
Bethesda, Maryland, August 10, 2011 (NOTE DATE) -- Northwest Biotherapeutics (OTC.BB: NWBO) reminded markets, in response to recent investor concerns about Dendreon’s Provenge immune therapy.
The investor concerns in the news relate to the pricing and reimbursement of Provenge for late stage, metastatic prostate cancer. Provenge is priced at $93,000 for one month of treatment and was approved by the FDA based upon having added 4.5 months of patient survival (to reach overall survival of 25.9 months).
NWBT’s DCVax® will be priced in the range of $37,000 ($37,000) per year for up to 3 years of treatments.
The research report you posted is where I got my numbers. I had just misplaced it and was too lazy to go find it again-- to quote:
Approximately 10,000 new GBM patients are
diagnosed annually. About 80% undergo surgery and 70% (reread) of patients
have the HLA A1 and A2 status required for the vaccine to work. This
leaves ~6,000 available patients to be treated annually.
6000 (uhh 60%) available for treatment by IMUC
70% correct HLA profile (not 80)
Even if we assume that those who opt out of surgery are unavailable to both companies it still leaves 30% of the market for NWBO.
Since NWBO's process does not screen for biomarkers 100% of the market is available to NWBO.
I'm never light on my facts
Taz...the following link below to an article covers many points from NWBO you have questioned including current GBM trial, dates as well as cost of DCVax. I like the results NWBO had with Phase II prostate that no other company could reach including Dendreon. I thought this link would help clear up questions on this board. Their DCVax platform has proven it works in multiple cancer trials already as well.
FYI, for the link to work,
Click the link which takes you to a page ending in /IMUC and then add space and 7-28-11 Initiation of Coverage-2.pdf
or convert the following http://www.imuc.com/pdf/2011/analyst/IMUC%207-28-11%20Initiation%20of%20Coverage-2.pdf
You are bit light on the facts yourself, but I think the point has been made.
I believe you numbers on pricing are low and you do not.
You believe the numbers helped by ICT-107 are 60% and I think the number is higher.
Here are some facts for you in reference to IMUC.
Patients must have HLA A1 and A2. Of Caucasians, 50% have HLA-A2 and 30% A1; ~55% of Asians and ~70% of African Americans have the correct HLA status. In
total, ~80% of the US population has the correct HLA status.
http://www.imuc.com/pdf/2011/analyst/IMUC 7-28-11 Initiation of Coverage-2.pdf
Perhaps you could respond on some facts on tumor lysate protein?
What percentage of the population has sufficient quantities for the NWBO vaccine to work?
Has that been disclosed?
So far you have disputed everything I have posted and offered no substantive facts in rebuttal. You seem to dispute the new number on new gbm cases, the pricing of the process which comes directly from the company CEO , and the fact that IMUCs trial design excludes about 40% of newly diagnosed gbm cases. You'll just have to take my word for it, do your own DD or contribute something of substance. I doubt you will do any of the aforementioned