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Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. Message Board

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  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Mar 29, 2012 11:40 AM Flag

    gbm

    My calcs are for US and EU-- somewhere between 10-12,000 cases of newly diagnosed GBM cases per year in EU and US-- Total 20-24,000 @37k per year.

    If IMUC wins the race, NWBO will still have Europe which is about a 50-50 split in patients. Too, IMUC's vaccine is only effective in about 60% of patients, those who express specific biomarkers. I believe their trial screens out patients without the specific biomarkers. It's not clear to me where that would leave the remaining 40%. I would think the FDA would only grant orphan status for those cases which are covered by the trial, but I don't know. NWBO may still get about 40% of the US market even if they don't win the "race".

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    • Rational...very good commentary and appreciate you sharing. I also believe people are underestimating NWBO's trial enrollment numbers due to the fact they decided to keep this very quiet and not publicizing this information has peoples perception that it is way behind. IMHO...I think we will be very surprised at the rate of enrollment and strong acceptance by the sites medical community towards the DCVax trial. NWBO will be providing an update soon which I expect Fraunhofer and Europe will be a part of the next update. NWBO is due for a quarterly filing in near future.

    • I believe you are thinking about some other IMUC, but I would be happy to see where you got the 60% number.

      The 37K number is not really in line with recent drug pricing. We will have to see if it really ends up being that price. Assuming of course they finally get the trials complete.

 
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