It's an all or nothing bet on the results of two sets of clinical trials. The nearest opportunity for money to come in is a successful phase 3 trial on DCvax-L (brain cancer) which is currently scheduled to complete sometime next year, with preliminary data (mostly on safety) coming late this year. From there, FDA/European approval and commercialization isn't that big a step.
The second is DCvax-Direct, which is a potential treatment for almost all solid tumor cancers. It has an ongoing phase 1-2 trial which should show results this year, but the therapy won't hit the market for some time after that.
Either way, don't expect this to become profitable tomorrow (or even to spike in price). If everything goes well, it's a huge payout a year or two down the road.
I agree and disagree with your comments, I agree that it is an all or nothing bet dependent on the ongoing trials. That being said I am very confident we will see fantastic results from the DCVax-L and DCVax-Direct trials, although there is more data to support the L over Direct right now. IMO This is not a typical pharmaceutical medication trial that will react very different in the biological make up between humans and animals, and we shouldn't see the adverse side effects of foreign chemicals in the blood stream. Remember that the FDA has already approved a similar treatment in that of Dendron’s that had proven to work. NWBO is the second generation to Dendron’s therapy and I believe we will see the even better results!
I also agree that we won't be anywhere close to profitability anytime soon, but I disagree that it will take a year or 2 to pay off. IMO the payout will be huge over the next 2 years starting with the first piece of positive data. This stock will climb with German approval but explode with any positive data from the unblinded DCVax -Direct trial o Partnership on the prostrate trial. There are a number of other events such as top line data from DCVax-L that would put big upward pressure on the SP. Regardless my bet is on us making it one way or another and the payoff could be immediate.