A) They are broke, so a secondary is hanging over their heads. Where this will be priced depends on lots of things, and
B) The German Trials. If these are for whatever reason declined, I believe it is a great setback for the company and could send the stock back down to 3.
Now IF, and it is a big IF, IF the financing is not too bad and IF the German trials were to start soon, then I think what you have is an interesting company-- the balance sheet would be ok for now, a Phase III in 3 different countries for a huge market underway, and as a kicker a phase i/ii trial for all inoperable tumors where results could be seen within a few months. The upside from here is really a double... downside about 3 bucks depending on the financing.
Personally, I think this stock is going to explode however, they need cash to get over the hump and the hump is DCVAC Direct validation. If they had doubts about it working in humans, they would try to partner it like they have been trying to do with prostate. Since they aren't trying to do this, something tells me they know it works, they just need it validated in a clinical trial.
I'm guessing NWBO has about 5 to 6 months to be validated then it will be make or break for this company/stock. My money is making it.
I would like to see the German trial start. It will help. But most trials are either the EU or the US, not both. And we already have the UK. So while it would be a negative PR to have the German trial shelved, it's not a derailing event IMO. Hopefully whatever the issues are will be resolved shortly.
Germany is going to happen and could be announced any day now as there is way too much investment by Fraunhofer involved with upwards of 24 clinical sites plus the recent job postings for numerous "autologous cell-based immunotherapy for the biotechnology company Northwest Biotherapeutics GmbH / Cognate BioServices GmbH organized clinical trial we are looking for several MTA / BTA or Biologielaborantinnen / laboratory technicians". With German approval the $5M grant is available immediately as well.
I do agree we will see PR updates in next couple of months on DCVax Direct patient response and with significant interest at MD Anderson to participate in this trial enrollment will happen very quickly IMO. All we need to see is tumor regression on several patients which all prior indications from ovarian, GBM and prostate trials we saw significant improvement. I like my odds here that we will see the same with DCVax Direct. GLTA!
I understand your points, but I think you have the cart before the horse. Financing won't happen until the company sees how the phase 1/2 solid tumor results are coming in. If they are good, as I expect, we'll see a PR - or multiple PRs - before there will be a secondary. Which means the financing will be at a higher price level than we are today.
How much higher the stock price goes depends on the how dramatic and consistent the results are. If the tumor shrinkage is great, and most of the patients respond, the PPS could be substantially higher before there's a secondary. If the results are so-so, the next financing will not be as favorable. But given how close we are to phase 3 results, I think we are near the low, no matter what happens with phase 1/2 trial and with the financing.
i think the financing will go down to the wire here.
Germany im convinced is a done deal
they have gone too far down the road with it to say NO
it would be irresponsible to wait until tumor results for the financing
catch 22 for nwbo i guess
kings have been very quiet with PR
This should change
The upside from regression on tumor will be a lot more than a double
risk/reward is MASSIVE
DOWNSIDE COULD BE MORE THAN 3.00 IM AFRAID
Although German news will soften the blow as im sure Europe will poor money into this if/when Germany comes on board.
don’t forget 10 hospitals with re-imbursement means , this is a big changer revenue wise.